About "Sweden under attack !" A possible future scenario
|August 19th, 2004||#1|
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"Sweden under attack !" A possible future scenario info
It took me and my wife about 3 days to translate this scenario from swedish to english so there are for sure some errors in the text but here it is and it is interesting and feel free to send questions or comments on the story if you got some time over for going through the whole history.
I find this scenario too good to stay in swedish and I want to thank the original author of this text who ever you may be for making this possible. With reservations for any names involved in the texture and with great respect for Russia and the Russian federation this is a text conducted by one swedish patriot with some expert help and it shall not be taken as an negative or kritikal attack on the Russian Federation. It is highly critical against our own government and the big cut downs of our defence capabilitys. And now Doc.S with wife present Sweden under Attack!
Sweden under attack !
The swedish defense decision 2004 brought the largest cut downs of the defense budget in modern time. The decision wasn`t based on securitypolitic considirations in the security council but it was a larger part in a deal between the government and the supporting parties. The opposition dropped out of the defense preparationwork when it came to their knowledge. The deal affected the relations between the government and the oppostion in a negative way years ahead. The opposition couldn`t agree on a trustworthy government alternative for the coming years because of internal struggles. An important question was the nuclearpower debatte that created a split between the Folkparty and the centerparty.
Cutdowns in accordance with FB-04 involving that Swdens defense in major features was limired to:
5 mechanised battalions (4 CV90+1 Armor terraincar)
3 haubitzbattalions (1 77B + 2 77BD)
2 maintaining battalions
1 antiaircraft defence battalion 97/0
1 engineer battalion
1 telecomwar battalion
2 ammunitiondisposal companys
1 telecommweapon company
5 surveillance units (KBV)
1 surfacebattle-/minewar flotilla (management + vessel)
1 submarineflottila (vessels only)
3 airdivisions (JAS 39 Gripen)
3 transportcentral airdivisions
2 regional airtransport divisions.
The phase out of the battletanksystem meaned in reality that the army lost it`s ability to conduct groundbattles against a qualified enemy. The Paratroop battalion was also phased out but parts of the staff was transferred to the Special units, wich made the Special units encrease their numbers. The airborn battalion still existed but it wasn`t airborn anymore, because their budget wasn`t even enough to buy hellicopters. The battalion is thereby in a state of confussion and doesn`t know wich tasks to perform. Parts of it`s old components are lost and the disembarkment competence who gradually had been built couldn`t be used as long as there were no hellicopters available.
The Amfibie brigade was phased out but one of the Amfibiebattallions is still remaining. The battalion however is facing the same situation as the Airborn battalion. The battalions future is most uncertain.
The Military districts Driftvärnet and the homeguard was phased terminated inte end of 2005 and in the beginning of 2006. More than half of the vocational units that existed in 2004 are now history.
There is no longer any fast and suitable Swedish mobilisationplan in existance
Every year 5500 sweeds does compolsonary service in the army, 1700 are in the Marine, 1300 in the Airforce, and 200 are divided into different aspects of the Defence. The officers cour consists about 8000 officers.
Course of events :
The UN organ - International Maritime Organization - (IMO) appointed the Barren sea as a ”protected sea” in the year 2004. All countries sorrounding the Barren sea except Russia ratified a new treaty in 2006 that forbided all trafficing in the barren sea with single hull cargo ships.
In support of the IMO treaty the Swedish coastguard boarded the ships Gomberg and Anna Karenina on January 1- 2007. The coastguard tried to make the ships turn around to their original harbour Basra in Iraq. The reason for this was that they in contradiction to the IMO-treaty carried large amounts of oil in single hulled vessels. The crews opposed the measure and the command of the ships were over taken by the swedish Coastguard in accordance with the treaty. The vessels were under Swedish command through the Kattegatt before the command was returned to the originall crew.
The oil carried by the vessels were meant for the powerplant in the isolated russian enclave of Kalaningrad. The measure unfortunatly coincided with the coldest winter month in years with temperatures as low as –34 C. With almost empty depots in Kaliningrad the delay of the oil delivery became inflammatory. Kaliningrad suffered during a three week period of low cold temperatures. The most affected by the situation was older people. The thing that blowed the situation sky high in media was the fact that 22 of the deceased lived at the same home for WW2 war veterans.
Based on the event Russia made the desicion to call home their Stockholm ambassador for discussion and sended messages on diplomatic channels. In a Live TV speech the Russian president explains that Russia will never accept any foreign forces digging their noses in Russias inner affairs. The vessels returned two weeks later with a heavy russian escort – all wishes and attempts from the swedish coastguard was ignored. An entensive diplomatic epiloge followed between Sweden and Russia.
Russia declares that they intend to raise the fishingquotient in the Barrent sea with 40%, altough there are Swedish and Finish protests Russia starts a heavy deeptrawl fishing campaing outside the coast of Gotland. Some of the ships are from time to time present on swedish territorial water. When the swedish coastguard tries to board one of the russian fishboats a member of the coastguard gets shoot and killed by an armed fisherman. As a consequence the coastguard adopts a rougher boarding and tactic attitude., the boarding is now done by swedish special units. This further upsets the russian public opinion. Fron the end of June 2007 russian fishingboats are always escorted by naval warships as an answer to the swedish intensification. Sometimes even tese vessels are present on swedish territorialwater. As a consequence of this the corvett Helsingborg gets a confrontative close encounter at sea, the damage corvett refuges to Slite on Gotland. The reason is that the corvett had a powerfull collision with a russian escortvessel. One of the russian sailors dies in the collision when a machine fallas over him. The sailors funeral is aired Live with military tokens of respect in his homecity of Ekaterinburg. The funeral is attended by the russian navalchief aswell as russias foreign minister.
The already tensed relation between Sweden and Russia escalets even further in September 2007. A well planed act of terror takes place in the moscow subway during rushhour. Eight backpacks have been placed out, each with a modified artillerygrenade and remote X fjärrutlösare?. Two of the grenades contains the nervgas Soman. The immediate deathrate is 120 and within fiften seconds a second group of 740 persons are deceased. Hundreds of people survives but looses their eyesight for the rest of their lifes. Images of dying people crawling their way out of the Moscow subway are aired under several days on the Russian TV networks and to the rest of the world.
An intense ”spaningsarbete” leads to the arrest of eleven chechnyan separatists. Six of the terrorists turns out to be swedish citizens. They have been swedish citizens for a couple of years because of their political activity as chechnians in Russia placed them at risk. With fresh memories of Kaliningrad and the dead sailor this causes a wave of hate in Russia towards Sweden. What causes the situation to escalete futher is that the money who financed the action turns out to come from a swedish state organistaion who thought they were financing a helpcenter for raped Groznyj women.
The hospitals in S:t Petersburg recieves a lot of patients who has fever, headache and backpains. The disease is identified as smallpoxes, the carrier of the disease turns out to be S:t Petersburgs water plant. Someone has during the two past weeks contaminated the citys freshwater supplies. Thanks to some chlorine purification and the fact that the disease was restricted to just one of the towns waterplants the damage gets restricted, yet a quarantine is introduced and more than 4000 people dies in the epedemic. Another hundred are shot by domestic units when they try to escape the quarantine zone.
Sergej Papazjvilij, the person responsible for the deed is pointed out by russian authoritys. He is of Georgian origin, but is born in chechnya and is suspected to be an ideologist and leader for the terrorcell who has been behind the previous acts of terror in Russia. Papazjvilij lives in exil in Sundbyberg Sweden and has for the past four years been a sweden citizen. Papazjvilij is interrogated by swedish securitypolice but is seet free due to the lack of evidence.
Russian demands of Sweden that Papazjvilijis is deported, but Sweden refuses. The evidence against Papaxjvilijis is to vage and he has already been interrogated by the swedish security police. Russia is not a member of EU and Papazjvilij is risking a death penalty if he is returned to Russia. There is simply no legal way for Sweden to deport him.
Russia threats with reprisals and says that Papazjvilij is an outlaw and that they will ”deal with him” in an other way. Papazjvilij is exposed to two assasin atempts in a row and one kiddnaping atempt.
Because Papazjvilij was found innocent according to the swedish law the media comes to his aid and defends his rights and he recieves police protection. A third assasin attempt occurs, one of the guards from the security policeforce shoots the assasin. The assasin is an officer from the russian domestic troops and dies instantly because of the injurys inflicted. Sweden summons home their ambassador from Moscow and leaves a sharp protest to russias Embassy in Stockholm. Russia summons home their ambassador and explains in UN:s security council that they will no longer tolerate Sweden to be a sanctuary for russias enemies.
The rumor of a immediate future terrordeed including nuclearweapons causes panic in Moscow . Paniced crowds , jammed traffic and looting paralyses the city under several days. The reason for the panic is an anonymous post who have been placed simultaneously on ten of russias most popular webbpages for internet debattes. The unknown sender has written a well formulated statement and claims that three briefcases containing nucleardevices will blow up in named areas Moscow. All this as a revenge for russias oppresion of the Chechnyan people. The news are spreading like wildfire and when a newsreader reports on television about the threat the panic reaches it`s peak.
Like a miracle no is injured during ”The big panic* as the media quickly names the event. The economic consequences however becomes devostating. The threat turns out to be a hoax and the local newsreader gets fired. The four days of looding, empty industries and chaos marks the infrastructure and it takes months before the production is back on it´s feets again and the costs are enormous. The event results in a major crisis for the russian industry, cancelled orders, downgoing markets and large phase outs of staff and personal.
Unfortunatly the source of the anonymous post is untraceable but a rumour and some unconfirmed information in a russian sensationmedia claims that ” The message probably has it`s roots in the IT- country Sweden.”
The attack hits Sweden like lightning two o`clock in the morning on the midsummersday of 2008. A midsummry off duty Sweden goes to bed, and wakes up in a new future with a new ruling power.
The swedish intelligence has been monitoring the preparations for the long announced disembarkment exercise called ”TUNGUSKA 2” In the St Petersburg area. With key at hand though, it turns out that the troopmovements and the build up is not an exercise this time around. Instead of a quick exercise in a ”fast advancing peaceforce stake” it seems to be the preparations for a fast invasion of Sweden.
The swedish airforce is wiped out in one powerfull strike by russian transportplanes with an heavy escort of fighterprotection that lands in the middle of Swedens one remaining airbas Såtenäs and takes over the flottila. One rote Fpl 39 from Swedens new ”AntiTerror” unit lifts of from Såtenås and encounters four divisions of Su-37 and are immediatly shot down over Östergötland. Swedens three divisions of parked Fpl 39 are taken over by the russian disembarkment troops in an undamaged condition.
Swedens little fleet is taken over by a special unit at Berga harbor, Muskö and Karlskrona.
Outside of Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö 3000 men are airdropped.
Eight large cargoships are put in at a swedish harbor, but instead of containing timber or oil as agreed they each turn out to have a light armor battalion on board. Luleå, Umeå, Härnösand, Sundsvall, Gävle, Oxelösund/Nyköping, Kalmar, Ystad and Slite/Gotland becomes bridgeheads for a massive russian invasionforce.
55 000 thousand russian soldiers arrives as a second wave along with heavy equipment in a matter of days. The resistance is shattered and and sporadic. Since the swedish homeguard was phased out between 2005/2006 the armys most powerfull unit (on paper) is therefor five mechanised battalions and three haubitz battalions. This anticipates a higher level of preparedness – and there is no quick carried out mobilisation established. One of the reasons for that is that in the inflammatory situation between the countries Sweden didn`t want to provoke russia.
A few thousand conscript are drafted for basic military training in the peace organisations, but they are off duty except for a few alarm platoons. Swedens armed capacity is therefor limited to the on duty weekend staff and the countrys policecour. On midsummers eve there are 2000 policeofficers on duty, but they are scattered over the whole surface of sweden and have no weapons that can stop a russian armorbattalion.
The main part of the defence peaceforce is packed togheter for economical reasons, and the russian airforce strikes powerfull and hard in a preventfull way against the few baracks and vehicledispotions and thereby removes everything that might be a threat against the russian disembarkment. Well planned airdropps cleans up after the airassualts. Soldiers and officers who has tried to reach their units without getting trapped in a russian checkpoint will without exceptions meet only ruins or or other uniforms than the kind they are used to in the barracks.
A swedish UN battalion offers some fierce ressistance. The battalion had for economic saving reasons been transported on a russian ship and for saving reasons they battalion was intended to be transported on a russian ship that arrived the freeharbor on midsummernights. In means of saving an expensive 24 hour rent of the ship the main part of the battalion was called in at 00.00 and would be ready to marsh at 03.00 on midsummers day. What no one had thought of was that the arriving ship would already be containing a mechanised battalion, a russian one.
The battalion that walks ashore in the Freeharbor is quickly deployed on their prio one targets without firing a single shot, all targets are within an area of 1500 meters around the disembarkment place, Kaknästornet, Channel 4, SVT (swedish television) and SR (swedish radio). Thereby is the possibilty of broadcasting any news interrupted in the operations first stage of action.
In the information chaos that follows a lot of sweeds looks at the largest news sites on internet in hope of finding some information, but the network is slow, partially because of the large number of internet users, but the main reason is that a russian specialforce has terminated the internet rootserver located at KTH, just a small walk from the freehaven.
The sabotage doesn`t shut down internet but it causes a constant reducing of capacity.The sweeds are there for depending on local tv and radiobroadcasts as primary news sources. However both television and radio had a poor understanding of the situation and has released both contradictory and incorrect information. No messages from the nationell managment reached the citizens.
Russias president airs a speech live on both TV and radio at 09.00 Stockholm time. The speech is broadcasted over Russia and Sweden. The speech is rerunned every hour from the newly taken swedish transmittors. The broadcast however doesn`t reach the whole population because of some thrashed radiomasts and a lot of techies have fleed their workplacesin wild panic.
The russian presidents says that he has been forced to launch a limited operation against Sweden in order to sustain russian and internationell security. NATO and the US are weel informed about the operation and knows that it is not an aggression aimed at them, as soon as the russian forces can confirm that the security is stable and that there will be no more more acts of terror with roots in Sweden the russian security forces will withdraw.
He also explains that the russian forces have been ordered to be moderate and that there is no need for the swedish people to get involved in futile struggles or contraproductive violence against this security OP. The swedish house of royalites are in no danger and neither is the government. Their security is granted by the russian forces and their intigrety aswell as their positions will be respected.
The swedish mechanised UN- battalion EB01equipped with Strf 90 have been waiting for their departure transport to Africa at the Lifeguard in Kungsängen. Their white painted battle-vehicles makes a sharp contrast towards to green sorroundings and they become easy targets. After performing a number of raids from the woods of Bålsta in a time amount of two weeks they are knocked out by russian air strikes.
Sweden still has one remaining mechanised battalion, in Iraq, where it has been conducting peacekeeping tasks under UN directions. The chief of the battalion have been requesting for american transport by satellitephone in order to go home to Sweden, but the USA has taken a cold-hearted stand in the matter.
The swedish UN- ambassador demands an action from the security council, but russia puts in their veto and that rules out the possibility of any condemning resolutions from the security council.
All UN -backed interventions are there by lost.
In a quickly gathered crisismeeting in Brussel it is stated that EU is not obligied to make a intervention on the behalf of the defense of sweden. In a paragraph from the 2006 regulation one can read that EU is forbidden to use common military force under the flagg of EU in any other purpose than peacekeeping stakes outside the boarders of EU. The defensework inside the union seemed to be satisfied best through NATO, wich most of Europes countries were members of anyway.
The proposol was to not built any further on EU as a defence alliance and was ironically made on swedish initiative because of the oppostion against EU involving into a defence alliance. From a lot of countries there was a sigh of relief when it was stated that they would not have to get into an armed conflict with the russian forces and set Europe into flames, or maby the whole world into flames.
Even if russias acting is unamiously condemned by EU and USA there is a wide understanding in the world for russias right to protect their interests in the security operation they have carried out. According to article 51 in the UN regulation russia has the right to selfdefence in order to make sure that no more acts of terror from swedish territory will occur.
The longer the occupation proceeds the more swedish voices are saying that sweden should give the russians what they want, that sweden shuld be carefull, tahat they should ride out the storm and let the russian forces leave sweden the following summer in approval to the pacifieplan. An extensive informersystem is established in sweden and the russian troops have a high presence in the community. Groups with two to four men patrools the streets togheter with law inforcment in order to sustain order and make contact.
Larg amounts of russian bussinessmen and companys arrives and new special laws are installed wich sends double signals. Is russia really going to withdraw from sweden? And if that is the case, when will they do so? And in what manner? A few freecorps continues their resistance, like ex Homeguardmen that refused to give in their weapons and equipment.
----End of Scenario----
Col. Meyers: What\'s your assessment of this situation, Gunny?
Highway: It\'s a cluster ****, sir. Marines shouldn\'t be sitting on their sorry asses filling out requisitions for equipment they should already have.
Col. Meyers: An astute observation.
|August 21st, 2004||#3|
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I got it from a friend that got it from another friend if you want to send me a private message were the text are original comming from Snauhi I would be very grateful.
The scenario is a great peace of work with very realistic and possible courses of events when it comes to our governments escape from reality this one is a Splash Hit.
|August 21st, 2004||#4|
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An interesting scenario, highlighting the fact that however you cut it, the truth is that the Russians could probably quickly over-run Sweden, and the country could not count on outside aid.
It is a concern that European governments, whether in Sweden or even here in the UK, seem to have the view that any major threat will be visible long before it arrives, therefore there is no need to have a capable standing force to defend their territories against an attack by another nation state.
For example, when the next wave of defence changes hit the UK, it will have a grand total of 20 air superiority fighters, of which 8 will be on standby for immediate scramble in the event of a threat to UK airspace. (Source the defence command white paper, http://www.mod.uk/issues/security/cm6269/index.html).
Across a broader spectrum, reading between the lines in this document, it looks like Britain will have (at combat ready status) 2 destroyers/frigates, 1 attack submarine, and one reinforced brigade of troops in the UK area. The overall armed forces are much bigger, but they are either stationed elsewhere, stood down, or in the repair shop: not much use in a sudden emergency. If there was a major attack from a regional power, Britain would hardly be able to defend itself, let alone offer aid.
Somebody should tell the EU that the Russians, while a fine, cultured people are Not Our Friends. The Chinese may be industrious, well-educated with a long history, but they are Not Our Friends either. Things can change more quickly than politics (especially international alliance politics) can cope with. In the new, more chaotic world brought about by September 11 and the US response to it, we need far stronger forces at readiness.
|August 21st, 2004||#5|
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I agree with the preceding writer when it comes to our different nations capabilitys to protect our own interests from sudden attacks. As everyone can read and certainly anyone with military experiance can see this is not entirly an impossible scenario. I agree with the preciding writer 100% on the following statement regarding our capability to defend ourselfe.
|August 21st, 2004||#6|
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"The phase out of the battletanksystem meaned in reality that the army lost it`s ability to conduct groundbattles against a qualified enemy."
Doubt that would happen though as there are signed contracts to prevent this from happening, this regarding the STRV 122, it will most likley last atleast 10 years from now (unless updates are made).
I think the contracts ware written for a 7 year period from now. If i understood it right from what my brother told me. I'm sertain that my brother will still be doing his job in 5 years time from now.
|August 21st, 2004||#7|
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I sincely dont know but If I could fly in to the future and see what is really happening with the swedish armour I would do it for sure.
But I can speculate and it did sound as the socialist party that are aming on another period here in sweden have to make the green party and the left wing pleased in some defense issuses to the next election so they can have their fun for another 4 years. And at Rapport (swe news programm) last weak the defence cutbacks was there again as an proposal to make the left and the green party happy and ready for the next 4 years of total mass destruction of our defenses. This boat is going down fast and it is just going and going AlexKall
It is like the old frog trick ---- were you constantly increases the water temperature untill the frog is boiled and when that day comes the different partys will tell us. Well now we have no defense anymore that can protect us anyway. Let us all come togheter and make a peaceful demonstration in the name of peace, love and understanding. We can talk our enemys out of our country and they will tremble with fear when they see our combined forces represanted by the leftwing and the green party with the socialist in front of our lines.
|August 21st, 2004||#8|
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It does suck around 14 times the amount of fuel a old volvo 740 do (or if it was more, dont remember).
We do have around 200 STRV122 they should count for something in a defence situation (if we do have the money for fuel that is heh).
|August 21st, 2004||#9|
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I think we are in the saucepan and we are all involved in this old frog trick ---- were you constantly increase the water temperature untill the frog is boiled, one third more of our defecense will be cut down untill next elections - latest news from TV4 this evening.
Maby another Emron situation but in a bigger scale. "soon no more oil then we just have to suck out the last drops of this black gold." Make no sence but who is the fool? The fool or the Fool who follows him?
I think that if anyone want to make big bucks for the future. He/She should think out a good "fuel" for the future armys because there is four things that never will end on this small planet.
1st War (includes all branches of new ways to kill or destroy)
2nd The relentless search for new medical or biological research
3th controll of humans in generall
4th Battle for space itselfe (China, Russia, USA, Japan and Sweden)
|August 21st, 2004||#10|
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"I think we are in the saucepan and we are all involved in this old frog trick ---- were you constantly increase the water temperature untill the frog is boiled, one third more of our defecense will be cut down untill next elections - latest news from TV4 this evening."
Yes we are and no questions about it but the doubt is in the tank area.
Also i think you should put "Europe" rather then "Sweden" on the 4th thing as its Europe that is batteling and not Sweden it self, although Sweden is quite a big part in the big pussle
Although many older people, around the age of 70 recognice this type of reasoning:
"Well there you have something very interesting the scientists around the world are asking themselfe if there will be anymore oil to bring up from mother earth in the next 50 years or so. "
Most remember some type of time of space reasoning of 30 - 50 years from then and it has never been true, although the resourses are lowered compared to say 50 years ago, but we have allways found new oil reserves and new ways of extracting it in more remote places.
I'm kind of going against myself, but sometimes that is needed to find the right answer, to look at other possibilities, but your right that it will some time end.