Originally Posted by samneanderthal

Taiwan would lose half its population and China less than .1% in such a war. Taiwan would lose its economy, China less than .1%. Is Taiwan really going to oppose the invasion? Is dead better than red?
An independent Taiwan represents a major competitor to China. An annexed Taiwan represents an important increase in industrial, research and military capacity and a vital location for expansion in the Pacific.
North Korea and China can easily invade South Korea. Is the average AMerican willing to go to war against both contries to save South Korea?

Clinton sent 2 carriers at a time when America was much stronger and China much weaker, two decades later it is doubtful that Obama would be allowed to do the same and that China would pay any attention to the carriers (being there doesn't mean they will attack, starting WW III over a small island).

Blockades were going to suffocate Napoleon, Germany in WW II, etc, but they didn't.

I disagree, China will loose much more than 1%. The interdependence of the world will make them suffer if they do something like this. Where do you get your number of 1%? Are these your thoughts or can you provide with an independent source?

It's my estimate. China has 1,300 million people. I said .1% not 1%.
.1% of 1,300 million is 1.3 million people. many more than should be lost invadingTaiwan.
The world can no more afford to live without China than China without the world, which is why I suppose nobody would lift a finger to stop China from recuperating its former territory.

Originally Posted by samneanderthal

It's my estimate. China has 1,300 million people. I said .1% not 1%.
.1% of 1,300 million is 1.3 million people. many more than should be lost invadingTaiwan.
The world can no more afford to live without China than China without the world, which is why I suppose nobody would lift a finger to stop China from recuperating its former territory.

You said .1% of China's economy. I am sorry, mate, I need more proof than your estimation. You cannot take numbers from the air

So you were talking about the economy. Well, China has already invested a fortune in war materiel that will rapidly become obsolete and without any major wars, has little market. Much like Hitler's Stukas, Ju-52, He-111, PZ I and II, so using them doesn't really cost much, compared to discarding them without gaining any territory, industry and prestige. Such considerations can also explain why the Kaisers were so eager to start WW I.

Even Russia cannot hope to defend Siberia from an attack by 10 million people (Barbarossa involved over 3 million men and fewer than 4,000 tanks and planes). So it shouldn't be much more than 10 years before Russia sells some land to China or China backs the independence of part of Siberia.
Russia has about 150 million people, fewer than the 170 million that Stalin had in the USSR during Barbarossa.

Originally Posted by samneanderthal

So you were talking about the economy. Well, China has already invested a fortune in war materiel that will rapidly become obsolete and without any major wars, has little market. Much like Hitler's Stukas, Ju-52, He-111, PZ I and II, so using them doesn't really cost much, compared to discarding them without gaining any territory, industry and prestige.

Even Russia cannot hope to defend Siberia from an attack by 10 million people (Barbarossa involved over 3 million men and fewer than 4,000 tanks and planes). So it shouldn't be much more than 10 years before Russia sells some land to China or China backs the independence of part of Siberia.

So what has that to do with China and Taiwan and the figures you pulled out from the air?

Nothing if you cannot connect them.

Originally Posted by samneanderthal

Nothing if you cannot connect them.

So that is your reply to a question about your figures about the effect on the China's economy if they decide to go to war. It does not matter if the targets are Taiwan, Siberia, and/or another neighboring country

Yes.
Like I said above, the world cannot live without China, anymore than China can live without the world, and unless major changes start today, every year a weaker world is becoming more dependent on a more powerful China, so China can afford to take incresingly greater risks.

Originally Posted by samneanderthal

Yes.
Like I said above, the world cannot live without China, anymore than China can live without the world, and unless major changes start today, every year a weaker world is becoming more dependent on a more powerful China, so China can afford to take incresingly greater risks.

So you think China will jeopardize its economic devolopment for some expansion? Further, I have not got any reliable sources from where you got your numbers

When you are severely overpopulated and the world is in a depression, good old fashioned war is the only way to ensure economic development and reduce population.
If anybody ever needed and can get Lebensraum, it's China. If anybody has excess territory and cannot defend it, it's Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. Is America willing to go to war over South America?