Topic: Russia,the new Saudi Arbia?

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July 27th, 2006   Post 1
Sukio
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

Post; Russia,the new Saudi Arbia?


I been watching the Science channel,when a program came on about the Russians finding lots,and I mean Lots of oil under sea of their east coast,And this makes me feel uneasy due to the fact that Russia may make billions in profit off of these reserves.The thing that scares me is that then they may thry to pull back some of their old soveit ways ,may build an huge armed forces branch with a virtualy unlimited military budget.The main reasons the Old Soveit Union fell was beacause the Afghanistan war was upseting the Russian people.Also the Chernobly acciedent and the fact that the Soveit Union Could not Compete with the United States economy.


The thing is that the Russians have been through h#ll economicly in the 90s.They may react to all these funds from oil in a strange way.By resorting to the last generation,the Soveit generation of Politions and let them take to the new profits off of oil,in turn make Cause the Russian Federation to become a dealdy super power once again and challenge the only one that Remains,the United States Of America,a empire in denial.


It would be a hard road once again....
__________________

"This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience"- Dwight D. Eisenhower , Jan 17,1961.
 
July 27th, 2006   Post 2
moving0target
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

I have heard that a return to the old ways is something that Putin favors. I don't know how rapidly Russia could regain control over those countries that have seceded or the old satellite countries, but I doubt the transition in Russia would be very difficult if the politicians and the military were united.

...course I'm about as close to an expert on this as I am nuclear physics.
 
July 27th, 2006   Post 3
sandy
Primus Pilus
 
Gear


For the russian rich gus and oil,
Russian people became rich and 70% supports Putin the Novaja Tzar.
All right,Russia still have so many plobrems(Education system,sharp decline in the number of births)
but Russia will maintain her potential growth rate.
 
July 27th, 2006   Post 4
Sukio
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

Well they may pull something along the lines of ,lets go back to our soveit ways but not invade our old satilite nations.

Look up Pripyat on image search on your home page,Its not what happend there is what I m getting to,its a perfect model of an Soveit town in a Soveit era.Just looking at the construction of the town can give you clues of the old Soveit rule,and life as a citizen.

I just hope they dont pull something to go back to that.
 
July 27th, 2006   Post 5
Ollie Garchy
Centurion
 
 
Russian oil only means more money for the oligarchy. The people will suffer as usual. In fact, the average quality of life has decreased sharply since 1990. Who cares that a handful oil barons will be as rich as Bill Gates. Russia is still a backward resource-rich country that only aspires to greatness. They will not, however, adopt the Chinese model and actually start thinking in terms of the game "Civilization". Without basic infrastructure, Russia will only become more dependent on trading resources for manufactured goods.
 
July 27th, 2006   Post 6
Sukio
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

You have a strong stance on that,Russia's biggest export today,small arms weapons.I m still fearful that if given the chance,Russia will try to live out the glory period of the Old Soveit Union once again.
 
July 28th, 2006   Post 7
major liability
Tribunus Laticlavius
 
 
Gear

Even if they did, I doubt it would be in their best interest to attack the US. That would be hell for both sides.
__________________
"It will be found an unjust and unwise jealousy to deprive a man of his natural liberty upon the supposition he may abuse it." - George Washington
 
July 28th, 2006   Post 8
Sukio
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

Im not saying they will attack anyone,it would be the tense situation that would be the killer. Look at the fifities in the United States.Or the Cuban missle crisis.If the Russian Federation in the Coming decades gets rich,very rich,the qaulity of life for the russian people wont change,but for the goverment will.Thus,a huge unessesary military may be spawned.Why?Im not sure.
 
July 29th, 2006   Post 9
boris116
Centurion
 
 
Sukio,
You can sleep well at night
Your fear is over-exaggerated!

Russia has already enormous wealth of natural resources, however, it doesn't make her rich or powerful on a long run.
Ollie G. is very correct pointing out the defficiency of the Russian infrastructure, etc.
I can add much more...
The problem is - they just CAN'T use that wealth to make their military strong again. Why? It is not easy to answer in a short post...
The best approach would be to BUY the newest weaponry overseas(i.e. from the States). Why it is the best, because these huge spendings will not increase inflation inside the country. But they can't buy american weapons - our government won't let them, their public opinion won't let them.
If they will start pour money into their military-industrial complex - it will be making a huge inflation pressure on their economy. And a lot of money will be just stolen or inefficiently used.
But the most important reason(ang Ollie G. has mentioned it, too) - consider Russia as a huge oil company. It's owners(Russian oligarchy and establishment) need the paying customers for their oil, not the territories to conquer...
Yes, many people in Russia are nostalgic for the past glory... But those who make the decisions, know that it is not possible...

The Soviet Union has collapsed because the price of oil went down. I think there are chances that current Russia will not survive the next period of the low oil prices, neither
 
July 29th, 2006   Post 10
Sukio
Primus Pilus
 
 
Gear

Thanks for opening my eyes,this is getting clearer.
 



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