I know the US is catching hell on multiple fronts for miscalculating the war in Iraq. People have been saying, and I agree with them, that the military did not properly plan to take over Iraq. I got to thinking a little bit on the subject. Misjudging war is pretty common in American history.

During the American Revolution, the British seemed to think that the war war would be very short. I have read a few letters and correspondence from British Generals in America to Britain that have upbeat predictions. The British found that they could beat the Americans, but never deal that fatal blow.

The Civil War also started with the thought of the War lasting 3 months at the most. The battle of Bull Run (First Manassas) had a lot of civilian spectators who came to watch. Everyone wanted to get a look before the war was over. No one ever thought that the War would last 3 long and agonizing years.

The Philippine war, from 1899-1904, started out like a policing action. The American forces went in thinking they would only be taking one island port. Soon 60,000 American soldiers were sucked into a conventional war. The remanence of the enemy forces retreated and fought a insurrection war that took 4 years to win and the lives of over 5,000 dead.

There were more than a few miscalculations in the Korean War. The American leadership refused to believe that the Chinese would attack. Man we were wrong on that one.

I do not think Kennedy was thinking about a full scale war in Vietnam when he approved American military advisers to assist South Vietnam. Once again, America found itself in a war no one really planned for.

I remember Clinton telling the American people that the actions in Bosnia and Kosovo would only be 2 years. We have been in Bosnia for over 10 years and Kosovo 6.

And now we have Iraq. Someone said that all the war plans go out the window as soon as the bullets start to fly. Yes we misjudged Iraq. You could say that history has a funny way of repeating itself.

SGT Doody

Misjudging war is common throughout human history. With the notable textbook case of the 1992 Desert Storm war, it is foolish to believe any major war can be perfectly planned and won. However, on the point of the 2003 War in Iraq it must be noted that you had high ranking American generalls (General Schinseki in the lead) that TOLD us exactly what was going to happen if we went in with too few troops but they where overrulled by politicians (rumsfeld) who said "Bah, what do you know about war?"

Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events

-Sir Winston Churchill

so true...great quote Chocobo_Blitzer

I am sure people know of other instances in history of severely misjudging a war. Let's hear them

SGT Doody

In WWI Germany thought France would be a push-over and Russia would be a rediculously difficult foe.

WWII Hitler thought the itallians might actually help him

I guess I have always looked at the Phillipines as a sort of guide when dealing with Iraq, they are strikingly similar except that Iraq is not a newly independent colony but instead a country on the rebuild.

One can and should plan for war to as eacting a degree as possible, but once the war starts it us up to the pilot in the air, soldier on the ground, and seamen on the ocean to carry out these plans, it is their courage and steadfast decotion that will make the difference and determine the outcome of the war.

The "hot" portion of the Nato action in Kosovo lasted 78 days. The occupation may have lasted longer than predicted, but it has been very light in US casualties.

The predictions that were way off were from critcs of the Kosovo war, who predicted out-of-control casualties in a prolonged, Vietnam-like scenario.

The war was in 1999.

There are always people who expect the next war to be another Vietnam. Because their movement depends on a Vietnam in order to gain power and influence.

And I leave you:
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat."

Theodore Roosevelt quotes (American 26th US president (1901-09), 1858-1919)

lets face it, its a lot easier to be upbeat about things and frankly, people dont like hearing bad news. the military aren't going to release statements that they expect a long hard war, with lots of casualties, the public morale would fall through the floor.
yes, apparently they didn't plan enough, but i think it is more common for countries to overestimate than underestimate themselves.

Originally Posted by Whispering Death

Misjudging war is common throughout human history. With the notable textbook case of the 1992 Desert Storm war, it is foolish to believe any major war can be perfectly planned and won. However, on the point of the 2003 War in Iraq it must be noted that you had high ranking American generalls (General Schinseki in the lead) that TOLD us exactly what was going to happen if we went in with too few troops but they where overrulled by politicians (rumsfeld) who said "Bah, what do you know about war?"

Totally agree with you on this.

With Iraq, maybe this topic should be called "Deception in War".