How about the Democratic nominees for President since 1972? Beginning with George McGovern, Walter Mondale in '84, Michael Dukakis in '88, Al Gore in '00, and John Kerry in '04. It is hard to imagine a worse menagerie of candidates. Voters looked at them and you could hear a collective "WFT".
Good leaders bad candidates has always been the Democrats problem. That's true. The Republicans have the exact opposite problem, good candidates and bad leaders. If you look at the past Republican presidents since the best you can come up with is Richard Nixon (a good president but who was destroyed by his own personal failings). Ronald Reagan is not liked outside the Republican party and hes hated everywhere else in the world. His popularity is declining as the years move on (about 52%).
This brings us to Barack Obama. Thus far he has been unable to convince at least half the registered voters to take him seriously. The bounce in the polls that he got following his triumphal tour of the Mid East and Europe disappeared within a day or two after he got back to the U.S.
Ditto for McCain and more so because he's still losing in the national polls.
Let's see, who will not vote for Barack Obama? The first group, obviously is, Republicans, lots and lots of Republicans.
Not as many as they did in previous years. There is alot of evidence that suggests that disillusioned Republicans are crossing over and joining Obama. Defections are high this year and the number is growing. The liberals and moderates are bailing out in droves.
If you honestly look at various demographic groups, Obama will not do well among senior citizens. He has already committed political suicide by suggesting he wants to mess around with Social Security. Bad, bad move. On top of that, he wants to tax all the forms of income that older people depend upon to pay the mortgage, rent or groceries. You know, the stuff to live on. Quite significantly, old people will come out and vote, and they are a large portion of the population these days.
Depends on which Seniors you are talking about. Remember McCain supported Bush's plan to privatize social security, you can be sure the AARP hasn't forgotten the way it was treated a few years ago. You can be sure that when Obama comes to Florida, McCains views of SS are going to be brought up. Thats going to be a tough stance to defend.
You see, Americans biggest weakness isnt in God, or Gays or even Guns. Its their pocketbook. And that is McCain worst area.
We veterans comeout to vote too. Veterans don’t like what they hear and see in Barack Obama. They don’t like the people he assiciates with like former Weatherman terrorists, convicted real estate developers, and ministers who say nasty things about the U.S.A. That's just the way it is with us.
Not all veterans are Republicans. Granted the majority are supporting McCain but about 40% are Democrats. That is not a vitinf block lock like say evangelicals. If you want to talk honesty McCain had a much darker cloud over him than Obama does. Obama may have had controversial friends, but he himself was never implicated in anything. John McCain was. The Keating 5 scandal sent several of McCains friends to jail and himself a severe congressional reprimand. He narrowly avoided indictment himself by the skin of his teeth, and is involvement was probably greater than would could actually be proved.
Evangelicals, like it or not are still a big voting block, are shocked at the brand of Black Liberation theology Obama listened to for twenty years. The anti-American views of Rev. Jeremiah Wright are a drag on his candidacy. He really can't distance himself from a 20 year association overnight.
They are a big voting block for Republicans, but not overall. The Democrats havent presued the Evangelical vote since George Wallace. Democrats dont need the Evangelical vote, Republicans do.
And as I said, religous extremists are a demading lot, they can make a real trouble if they dont get their way. And their way is often contrary to the desires of the rest of the country. If they try and overturn Roe V Wade, the GOP will pay dearly for it next election. (Which is why they havent touched it).
The days when the unions wielded any clout are over, but the Democratic Party which depends heavily on their money and manpower may discover on Election Day that a lot of union members will have voted for McCain. Obama simply does not resonate among working people. He lacks the common touch, which he never actually had.
Unions still represent several Million Americans and there member is slowly climbing again, and there is no way the unions are going to support the largest champion for big-business management in Congress. Obama might not be as popular as Edwards and Hillary but that doesnt mean they like McCain.
We can add in the gun-owners too, 80 million of them, who did not take kindly to his “clinging to guns” remarks.
A minor remark, and frankly it is accurate. People DO cling to the guns issue more than they should, its a minor issue compared to all our other problems. I think more people took offense "Americans are Whiners" and "A rich man makes over $5 Million". That was an offense to just about every working person in America because it just proved how out-of-touch McCain and his people are about normal people and the economic crisis we are in. As I said, only a few people care about guns, but EVERYBODY cares about the economy.
There lots of people in “fly over” America who are not very concerned about what the libs on the East and West Coast think.
They should care, because its those libs on the east and west coast that pays the lions share of the federal taxes, that money goes into their states (we pay more and get less). Personally, myself and others are getting tired of paying for ungreatful people.
Second of all, I assume you know why its called "flyover America". Its because nobody actually lives there. You have to combine the populations of Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, North+South Dokota to equal the population of New York City (not NY state). So I have no problem saying that states like NY, CA, IL etc carry more political clout than flyover America.
Not to get into all the religious groups, but it is safe to say that Jews, traditionally Democratic, just may find it vefry difficult to vote for anyone named Barack Hussein Obama. That in itself, could cost him Florida, a very big loss.
This is a racial issue, the jews dont like blacks, and visa versa. I know the jewish community in Florida, they mostly came from Bensonhurst and Crown Heights where there have been some violent riots between blacks and Jews over the past decades. But make no mistake IF (its not certain) they vote for McCain they will do so holding their nose, and the fact that McCain picked an evangelical over Joe Lieberman didnt indear them to McCain either. McCain shouldnt assume that he has got their vote. Besides Obama doesnt need Florida, he only needs to flip one state from 2004 and hes won. According to the polls so far hes flipped 4 (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado). As we learned in 2000, its the electoral votes that count not the popular vote. 2008 might be 2000 in reverse.
African Americans as a group will certainly vote for Obama. Not generally known, however, is that Hispanic-Americans outnumber blacks in America these days and how they will vote remains very much in question.
Hispanics (with the exception of Cubans) have always voted Democrat. I see no reason why that would change, espicially with all the anti-immigrant sentiment within the GOP, thats likely to help Dems.
Obama’s biggest problem and it's a huge one, is that the majority of Americans racially are white. Yes, even Hispanics, racially, are white. Once you get by all the usual politically correct BS about race, the likelihood that most whites will vote for Obama is slim to nil when they get in the privacy of the voting booth.
That is why, in a nutshell, I believe John McCain is most likely to be the next President of the United States of America.
Maybe, maybe not. The polls have McCain losing. its close, but if the election were today Obama would win in a close battle. I wont say McCain wont win, but he is trailing.
