The recent event where the Israeli bombing of a Hezbollah position ended up killing 60 civilians has got me thinking. I really do not see the air campaign against Hezbollah as being effective. My reasoning says that Hezbollah may be weakened by the bombing, but the bombing will not destroy the group like Israel believes it will. I guess the press puts Hezbollah at 5,000 strong with 10,000 rockets. Israel claims that it has destroyed over 50% of those rockets. Woopie, there are still a lot more rockets. Then we have the wonderful suicide bombings that hezbollah will adopt just like the resistance in Iraq did. As I have followed the events of the bombing, I can say that Israel is setting up more support for Hezbollah. Bombing infrastructure and targets not directly related to Hezbollah will only alienate Israel's cause while making Hezbollah look like heros in Lebanon.

History has shown that Air Power alone does not win battles. Air Power is a part of a greater effort that wins war. Troops on the ground would be the only military solution to eliminating Hezbollah. That will be very costly to Israel if she decides upon that course of action.

Good point, and you have to look no further than Gulf War I (1991). The Americans pounded the Iraqis into submission with air power, but still followed it up with a ground war that really broke the camel's back. The Israelis are nowhere near coming close to beating Hezbollah into submission like that; which just means their ground war is going to be pretty brutal...

I believe that you can't compare the present Arab-Israeli conflict to the First Gulf War or most other wars for that matter.

On one hand, we have the conventional army like the Iraqi Republican Guard had. They had their tanks and their jets and so on. The aim of any conventional army is to improve through use of technology. Always producing bigger and better machines. But the way to beat technology is to counter it with technology. Iraq had one of the best armies in the region at the time but it was no match for our army, the most technologically superior fighting force in the world.

On the other hand, we have the Hezbollah guerillas. These guerillas and any type of insurgency is as low tech as a fighting force can get. Armed only with assault rifles, machine guns, and should-launched rockets, they practice hit and run techniques, never standing up and fighting a conventional war. They realize the fact that they will be defeated if they do so like what happened to the Vietcong during the Tet Offensive. We utterly destroyed them when they stood up and fought. You can’t fight a low tech enemy such as the Hezbollah Guerillas or the Insurgents in Iraq by simply throwing vast amounts of technology at them unlike against a conventional army. It just doesn't work that way.

Cooler King

Good post. I will add one point. You dont win a war by fighting on your enemies terms, you win a war by forcing the enemy to fight on yours. Throughtout history this has been proven true from the Romans smashing up the Greek phanlaxes with their pila, to the English longbow victory over the French Heavy Cavalry to the Vietcong's guerilla war against the French and later US.

This is precisely the lesson Hezbollah is using to its advantage. By stationing the Katushya in civilian areas the are forcing the Isrealis to strike there, which in turn kills lots of Lebanese civilians (Hezbollah doesnt care about civilians), which further enrages the Arab world against Isreal which is precisely what Hezbollah wants.

Originally Posted by mmarsh

This is precisely the lesson Hezbollah is using to its advantage. By stationing the Katushya in civilian areas the are forcing the Isrealis to strike there, which in turn kills lots of Lebanese civilians (Hezbollah doesnt care about civilians), which further enrages the Arab world against Isreal which is precisely what Hezbollah wants.

That's correct!

One more point - the ground offensive for the Israelis is very risky as well - everything is mined and fortified.

I believe, the Israelis' goal is to get the international militari force +Lebanese army to be stationed in S. Lebanon, preferably, French and Sunni Arab nations like S. Arabia, Egypt. It will force Hezbollah either reform into political movement, or fight them

The Israelis are not stupid. Of course the IDF knows that sustained bombing operations against dispersed paramilitaries fighting asymmetrically will not achieve decisive results. That is why the ground forces have moved in.

Hezbollah is in serious trouble if the IDF can take sufficient ground, destroy enough transportation targets, and reduce the overall economic viability of Lebanon. Under current conditions, Hezbollah will be significantly reduced in size and fighting strength. The Islamic militias will then need more money and manpower to flesh out and bolster their paramilitary formations. Since Lebanon's tourist industry is now gone, along with any hope of domestic economic success, outside players are Hezbollah's lifeline.

Diplomacy, if undertaken correctly, can subsequently isolate Hezbollah by cutting off Iranian and Syrian support. This is the lynchpin. Without outside aid, Hezbollah could be reduced to a horde of suicide bombers. That is where the large Israeli wall and certain concessions could come in handy. I would not be surprised if Syria receives a new Western investment package and Iran is permitted to build nuclear reactors under relaxed conditions.

Conclusion: Provided Israel does not want to bring Syria and Iran into the conflict, and the West adopts their usual role of banker, the current Israeli offensive could really hurt Hezbollah. The militia group will be reduced and isolated. I am starting to see some sense in all of this.

Originally Posted by Ollie Garchy

Conclusion: Provided Israel does not want to bring Syria and Iran into the conflict, and the West adopts their usual role of banker, the current Israeli offensive could really hurt Hezbollah. The militia group will be reduced and isolated. I am starting to see some sense in all of this.

I'd say the Israelis see this as a war of national survival, while Hezbollah tend to connect it to the broader Arab struggle for Palestine. Hezbollah have high morale, are well dug in and on familiar territory; Israel has the latest gear and incredibly motivated soldiers. It's going to last longer than people think and it won't be pretty. Syria and Iran would do well to stay out of it.

For Hezbollah, this is business as usual, but on a much bigger scale. Who the hell could have expected Israel to do nothing? Yeah, I know I'm preaching to the choir and all ... But the always have and always will intentionally position themselves so that the inevitable Israeli counterattack is guaranteed to kill a lot of innocent civilians. Every dead innocent person was, in all honesty, purposefully sacrificed by Hezbollah to ensure that the world (especially the Muslim world) continues to hate Israel.

Ground invasion is, as usual, the best method for Israel to accomplish their self defense goals. Once again, Lebanon will lose a very large chunk of the southern part of their nation. And why will they lose it? Because the Lebanese do absolutely nothing to stop Hezbollah from attacking Israel from within Lebanon's borders, but they certainly offer plenty of support to Hezbollah and every other extremist group.

The world has proven "air power ain't enough" over and over again. It never will be.

Originally Posted by godofthunder9010

The world has proven "air power ain't enough" over and over again. It never will be.

I'd say that there is only one instance that it is enough...

True, but nobody wants to turn our dearly beloved planet into a lifeless glow in the dark rock, so we don't tend to use that one.