this will be a fairly open question but did the Japanese really have any chance at an invasion of Australia, certainly they were heading through Papua New Guinea and I have no doubt they may have tried a landing but did they seriously think they much chance of taking and holding it?

If you look at the size of the country its geographical location, climate and terrain (namely it is an island) the chances of a country the size of Japan successfully holding such a territory would have been extremely difficult especially given that they were still engaged on a land front through out China and sub-continent.

I think they did seriously think they could take and hold Australia at least until late 42 or early 43. Given their accomplishments in late 41 and early 42 in Malyasia, Singpore, the Philippines, Indo China, etc. I believe that they thought Oz was doable.

They were also in the habit of over estimating themselves and underestimating the Allies at this point in the war.

Originally Posted by 03USMC

I think they did seriously think they could take and hold Australia at least until late 42 or early 43. Given their accomplishments in late 41 and early 42 in Malyasia, Singpore, the Philippines, Indo China, etc. I believe that they thought Oz was doable.

They were also in the habit of over estimating themselves and underestimating the Allies at this point in the war.

USMC03

They did actually think they could take it. The invasion plans were already drawn up, Fortunately The Battle of Coral Sea put and end to the idea.

Its just amazing that they could have been so arrogant. Japan is a tiny country, Australia is a enormous one and most of it is wild. They might have been able to hold the cities Sydney, Darwin etc, but anything outside a 10 mile radius would have been ungovernable. And remember they were already quite overextended both in the South Pacific and in China.

I have no doubt that they thought could and planned to do it.

Like I said at this time in the war the IJA & IJN over estimated their own abilities.

They also under estimated the allies due to a string of easy early victories.

They thought of China as conquered and were arrogant enough to truly believe the Allies would fold in the Pacific.

From what I have seen their plans for an Australian invasion were pretty hit and miss, it has some support from Japanese naval planning staff but had no support from Yamamoto or the Japanese cabinet.

Plans ranged from small scale landings in remote parts of Australia to a full scale landing requiring up to 20 divisions which would have been twice the number of troops used in the entire pacific campaign to that date.

On the whole it really just seemed like they were deluded.