Originally Posted by Doppleganger

I suspect if I listed sources you'd just shoot them down and label them as more western or soviet-era propaganda. The most inaccurate claim for Sorge I've heard is 20th June instead of 22 June and surely 2 days out ahead of schedule is close enough for Stalin to at the very least start taking some prudent defensive action. Even if I was getting contradictory data from 3 different sources it would still tell me that 'something was up' and that I ought to at least prepare for the worst.

If you have some other sources that repudiate that Stalin wasn't as well-informed regarding Hitler's intentions as many believe then I'd be genuinely interested to look at them. As long as they're not in Russian as I can't read that language.

Sorge did not predict June 20th either. The closest he got was June 15. He sent a message on June 20th that said 'war is inevitable' or something to that effect. The following is a list of sources I used for my paper, not counting at least two books in Russian:

Bibliography

Axell, Albert. Stalin’s War Through The Eyes of his Commanders. Arms and Armour: London,
1997.

Barros, James and Gregor, Richard. Double Deception: Stalin, Hitler and the Invasion of
Russia. Northern Illinois University Press: DeKalb, 1995.

Broekmeyer, Marius. Stalin, the Russians, and Their War 1941-1945. The University of
Wisconsin Press: Wisconsin, 2004.

Damaskin, Igor A. Stalin I Razvedka. Moscow, 2004.

Erickson, John. The Road to Stalingrad: Stalin’s War with Germany. Yale University Press:
London, 1999.

Gorbunov, Evgenii. Skhvatka s Chyernim Drakonom. Tajnaya Vojna na Dalnyem Vostoke.
Veche, 2002.

Gorodetsky, Gabriel. Grand Delusion. Yale University Press: New Haven, 1999.

Leonard, Raymond W. Secret Soldiers of the Revolution: Soviet Military Intelligence, 1918-1933. Greenwood Press: London, 1999.

Mawdsley, Evan. Thunder in the East. Hodder Arnold: Great Britain, 2005.

Murphy, David E. What Stalin Knew: The Enigma of Barbarossa. Yale University Press: New
Haven, 2005.

Overy, Richard. Russia’s War: A History of the Soviet War Effort: 1941-1945. Penguin Books:
New York, 1997.

Petrov, Vladimir. Soviet Historians and the German Invasion “June 22 1941” University of
South Carolina Press: Columbia S.C., 1968.

Pikhalov, Igor. Velikaya Obolgannaya Voyna. Eksmo: Yauza, 2005.

Prange, Gordon W. Target Tokyo: The Story of the Sorge Spy Ring. McGraw-Hill Book
Company: New York, 1984.

Pleshakov, Constantine. Stalin’s Folly. Houghton Mifflin Company: New York, 2005.

Prudnikova, Ye. et al. Legendi GRU. Moscow, 2005.

Salisbury, Harrison E. The 900 Days: The Siege of Leningrad. Da Capo Press: New York, 1985.

Stepashin, S. V. ed., Organy Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti SSR v Velikoy Otechestvennoy
Voine. Moscow, 1995. Book 2.

Sudoplatov, Pavel and Anatoli. Special Tasks. Back Bay Books: New York, 1994.
Whymant, Robert. Stalin’s Spy. St. Martin’s Press: New York, 1996.
Yakovlev, Alexander N. ed., 1941 god. Moscow, 1998. 2 Volumes.

Ziemke, Earl F. Moscow to Stalingrad: Decision in the East. Center of Military History:
Washington, D. C., 1987.

Websites

http://nvo.ng.ru/history/2000-10-27/5_ramzay.html http://www.newlibrary.ru/read/korolkov_yurii/chelovek_dlja_kotorogo_ne_bylo_tain.html
http://www.lib.ru/MEMUARY/ZHZL/zorge.txt


Read Whymant's book "Stalin's Spy" if you want the messages he sent translated. Read Murphy to see the contradictory information coming into the GRU and NKVD from abroad. Use your common sense, and if that fails logic, to understand Stalin's and Golikov's situation, amongst others, when viewing the reports coming in.

Originally Posted by MontyB

Do you have any responses that don't involve telling people they are wrong without offering evidence of your own?
I mean its great you have opinions but its a bit rich to be criticising others opinions without giving a justification for your argument.

I got tired long ago of providing information only to have people ignore it. So, now I simply ask them for theirs, if they actually provide it and I can contradict it, and I can find the time to do the research (depending on how much research is needed, of course) then I will. But offering up information that I didn't get spoon fed to me is not something I'm here for. I do make exceptions, those that ask me for my opinion and for information I oblige by doing the research. Those too ignorant to know better, I'd rather see where they get their ignorance from.

Originally Posted by Kunikov

Sorge did not predict June 20th either. The closest he got was June 15. He sent a message on June 20th that said 'war is inevitable' or something to that effect. The following is a list of sources I used for my paper, not counting at least two books in Russian:

Thank you. What was the full subject of your paper and is it online anywhere? I suspect not or you probably would already have linked to it.

If I accept that Sorge was not as accurate as earlier publications suggested, that still leaves Stalin's own military intelligence and, more importantly, the Lucy Spy Ring. Even if Stalin distrusted the information, which he reportedly did from the latter source (at least in 1941), he still should have made some adjustments to a defensive posture along his western border. I see no excuse for Stalin to be caught so off guard as he was when the Germans invaded.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

Thank you. What was the full subject of your paper and is it online anywhere? I suspect not or you probably would already have linked to it.

If I accept that Sorge was not as accurate as earlier publications suggested, that still leaves Stalin's own military intelligence and, more importantly, the Lucy Spy Ring. Even if Stalin distrusted the information, which he reportedly did from the latter source (at least in 1941), he still should have made some adjustments to a defensive posture along his western border. I see no excuse for Stalin to be caught so off guard as he was when the Germans invaded.

The whole problem with this issue is that surprise as a principle of war is unimportant. I know that I will get flak on this issue, but I do not care. But, think about it...an operation starts, people react, it happens along a timeline whereby a military will respond at a certain point. The problem for the Soviets was not the clock. The problem has to do with the OODA loop. The Germans reacted to Soviet action at an early juncture, and continued this process throughout the war. It makes no difference what Comrade Stalin thought or did.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_Loop

Originally Posted by Ollie Garchy

The whole problem with this issue is that surprise as a principle of war is unimportant. I know that I will get flak on this issue, but I do not care. But, think about it...an operation starts, people react, it happens along a timeline whereby a military will respond at a certain point. The problem for the Soviets was not the clock. The problem has to do with the OODA loop. The Germans reacted to Soviet action at an early juncture, and continued this process throughout the war. It makes no difference what Comrade Stalin thought or did.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_Loop

Whilst I see merit in this argument, I would also argue that surprise is still a vital principle of war. The OADC Loop would come into play after the initial surprise element and things would play out from there, as far as I understand it. It could be argued that there was no element of surprise present in the German invasion of Russia, as the Soviets had some inkling of it (or must have realised that a German attack would happen at some point) and did very little to prepare for it. No matter what kind of treaty you have with a powerful neighbour whose ideology is almost an exact opposite, no matter how much you wish not to antagonize said neighbour, to not prepare for a possible invasion along a mutually shared border is simply folly.

As far as the early stages of Barbarossa go, German tactics successfully (in the main) disrupted Soviet ability to adequately respond at a higher level for several months after the start of the operation. Therefore, the Soviet OADC loop process was severely short-circuited, if it even existed at all. When an opponent has gained the initiative so quickly, local success aside, would the Soviets even be able to respond pro-actively? It seems to me that their responses would be purely reactionary at least until they were able to stabilize their lines and have time to think.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

Thank you. What was the full subject of your paper and is it online anywhere? I suspect not or you probably would already have linked to it.

If I accept that Sorge was not as accurate as earlier publications suggested, that still leaves Stalin's own military intelligence and, more importantly, the Lucy Spy Ring. Even if Stalin distrusted the information, which he reportedly did from the latter source (at least in 1941), he still should have made some adjustments to a defensive posture along his western border. I see no excuse for Stalin to be caught so off guard as he was when the Germans invaded.

This is pointless, you have not read the works I listed above nor do you care to. I'm not going to be correcting you at every turn. So, for the last time; the information being received was contradictory, Stalin did not know who to believe, the information he looked at many times said Germany wouldn't attack, at least not that summer. Secondly, the Red Army was growing, forces were on the move from the interior, airfields were ordered to be camouflaged, etc. There was only so much one could do without knowing exactly when Hitler would attack and believing it. You see 'no excuse' because you haven't read all the reports that were coming in.

Originally Posted by Kunikov

This is pointless, you have not read the works I listed above nor do you care to.

Well I'm not going to read all of them!

Originally Posted by Kunikov

I'm not going to be correcting you at every turn.

We are discussing opinions not facts here so how can you correct a point of view?

Originally Posted by Kunikov

So, for the last time; the information being received was contradictory, Stalin did not know who to believe, the information he looked at many times said Germany wouldn't attack, at least not that summer.

So what, the fact of the matter is there was reasonable suspicion that an attack was coming sometime in mid June, according to Sorge.

Originally Posted by Kunikov

Secondly, the Red Army was growing, forces were on the move from the interior, airfields were ordered to be camouflaged, etc. There was only so much one could do without knowing exactly when Hitler would attack and believing it. You see 'no excuse' because you haven't read all the reports that were coming in.

No, I see no excuses because there were no excuses.

May I suggest you lose the hostile tone and the superior attitude prevalent in your posts. Whether you are right or wrong, coming over as 'up your own arse' isn't doing you any favours. I hardly think you'd act like this if we were discussing things face to face. It doesn't hurt to be polite.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

Well I'm not going to read all of them!

You can start with Murphy's book then.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

We are discussing opinions not facts here so how can you correct a point of view?

Your opinions are based on facts, or rather a lack thereof.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

So what, the fact of the matter is there was reasonable suspicion that an attack was coming sometime in mid June, according to Sorge.

Mobilizing an entire country is not done because of a suspicion.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

No, I see no excuses because there were no excuses.

Once more, you've not educated yourself on the topic.

Originally Posted by Doppleganger

May I suggest you lose the hostile tone and the superior attitude prevalent in your posts. Whether you are right or wrong, coming over as 'up your own arse' isn't doing you any favours. I hardly think you'd act like this if we were discussing things face to face. It doesn't hurt to be polite.

I'll lose my hostile tone when I see you using something aside from baseless opinions when writing posts.

Originally Posted by Kunikov

This is pointless, you have not read the works I listed above nor do you care to. I'm not going to be correcting you at every turn. So, for the last time; the information being received was contradictory, Stalin did not know who to believe, the information he looked at many times said Germany wouldn't attack, at least not that summer. Secondly, the Red Army was growing, forces were on the move from the interior, airfields were ordered to be camouflaged, etc. There was only so much one could do without knowing exactly when Hitler would attack and believing it. You see 'no excuse' because you haven't read all the reports that were coming in.

You can cite all the sources that you want. How about a million more? None of this changes the fact that the Sovs got creamed. And, they got creamed throughout the war -- the war kept the Russians in the stone age. That was all they could ever have achieved. It was a "miracle" from a Slavic perspective, but they only gave up millions to allow the Americans to win.

Let me introduce a conjectural point...after all this crap, that is the least that one could allow me. What about a war between Germany and the Soviets without the air war and the two fronts in Italy and France? Come on, who are you trying to convince? I live in the real world. How about you guys? Germany would have won.

And, anyway, look at Russia today, what have they won? 60 years after WWII, I have to say that Germany won, anyway.

Originally Posted by Kunikov

Your opinions are based on facts, or rather a lack thereof, Mobilizing an entire country is not done because of a suspicion, Once more, you've not educated yourself on the topic.

I'll lose my hostile tone when I see you using something aside from baseless opinions when writing posts.

D. is the best thinker of this forum...so, your points are both stupid and crude. I give him credit. I give you the lack of respect you deserve. Go and pull your pro-Soviet perspective on Putin. At least, he will order you a bottle of vodka and a couple of Slavic hookers. Hookers? The whole state is a brothel. Does that make you happy?