About blocking the Strait of Hormuz possible or not possible?
|March 26th, 2012||#1|
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blocking the Strait of Hormuz possible or not possible? info
* Iranian military facilities to block the Strait of Hormuz:
1- High speed boats which Iran has a lot of them and are equipped with naval radars, short and middle range cruise anti-ship missiles.
And the other High speed boats which all of them are made in Iran in اhigh quantity.
2-Submarines which are included three Kilo submarines which have been made in Russia and about seventeen other light and middleweight submarines which have been made in Iran. I think since the deepest place in Persian Gulf is about 93 meters, this kind of submarines are more applicable than very heavy submarines with long even more than 100 meters.
3- Cruise anti-ship missiles which are included short-range missiles (Kosar, 15-20 km range), middle-range missile (Nasr, 35 km range) and long-range missiles (Nor and Ghader 200km range). These missiles can be installed at the depth of 70-150km of Iranian territory and are completely independent and can discovery and attack to target themselves without any help.
4-Ballistic missiles which are included Tondar(150-250km range),khalije-fars (300km range, 3 mach speed and 650kg warhead) and Sejil (2000km range, 8-12 mach speed and 500 kg warhead). It was thought that Sejil is a surface-to-surface missile but recently according to Iranian announcement it can also be used for sea targets. You can find the test movie for these targets on internet.
All of above missiles are made in Iran in high quantity.
5-Air force included manned or unmanned aircrafts which could carry different type of anti-ship or cruise missiles, especially short or middle range missiles to desired points.
6-Iran navy. All of Iranian's warships have been bought before Iran revolution from western countries except Jamaran which has designed and manufactured in Iran.
And the other things. As you know the width of the Strait of Hormuz is very short so each target can be threatened easy even with artillery, rocket launcher or helicopter.
Last edited by hamidreza; March 27th, 2012 at 04:28..
|March 26th, 2012||#2|
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Many things are "possible",... but what must be taken into account is, "Is it worth the cost".
|March 26th, 2012||#3|
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|March 26th, 2012||#4|
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I doubt that Iran really intends to carry out its threat, but merely wants to remind the West that it could attempt to close the strait if provoked or attacked.
The economic effects of a blockade would hurt Iran more than anyone else. Eighty-seven percent of Iranian imports and about ninety-nine percent of its exports are by sea, and so closure to the Strait will probably impact Iran more severely than any other single nation.
It would make no sense, and will mean war with the U.S., and you donít want that. Iran has no way of standing up to the U.S. Navy at sea.
|March 26th, 2012||#5|
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I think with about $140,000,000,000 currency reserves, at war condition, Iran can resist for years . and can you guess how much time western countries can stand out without about 40% of world oil?a tiny explosion in one of Saudi Arabia oil pipe increased the price of oil about $5. and how much do you think will be the price of oil when a real war occur in the middle east?
You can see the result of oil sanction which is putting on by US. Iran sold about 13% less than last month but the price of oil increased more than 25%. so how is the winner? and as you know they exempt 11 country recently and they want add more countries to this list. they defaced as their before silly sanction before they performance their sanction completely.
And I want to say Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan . In this 30 years Iran has learned how to protect his profits.Iran is not alone in the middle east. Iran has a lot of friends in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia's Shiites who are living in the east sensitive oil-rich region and will find friends in Egypt very soon. So Iran can block the the Strait whatever she want.
Last edited by hamidreza; March 28th, 2012 at 13:46..
|March 26th, 2012||#6|
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According to a report from the Institute for Energy Research, the United States has 1.4 trillion barrels of recoverable reserves of oil ó or more than the entire world has used in 150 years. Thatís enough to fuel the United States for the next 250 years. Natural gas and coal resources are in even greater abundance. Energy independence could really and truly be as easy as 1-2-3.
If the Straits are closed for more than a few weeks, worldwide reecession is guaranteed. If Iran did try to blockade the strait, it would be no match for a U.S. fleet accompanied by the Combined Maritime Force protecting Gulf shipping that also includes countries such as Britain, France, Canada, Australia and the Gulf Arab states, under the command of a U.S. admiral.
Iran has been investing for decades now on creating a naval guerrilla force which would have the capability of at least interfering with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps closing it, at least temporarily, using a combination of mines, small boats, antiship cruise missiles, submarines, both midget submarines as well as conventional submarines, and most recently ballistic missiles.
But once the United States Navy gets involved in ensuring freedom of navigation, I think it's very clear what the outcome will be, eventually, the destruction of the Iranian Navy and the reopening of the strait.
|March 27th, 2012||#7|
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World oil reserves by region:
Middle East: 56%
North America: 16% (most of them are in Canada)
Central and South America: 8%
Asia and Oceana: 3%
As you see the US and her allies have just 20% of world oil reserves (North America+ Asia and Oceana+ Europe) while they consume most fraction of the world energy. And it is the main reason they have brought their soldiers to ME, occupied Iraq and have made military bases in some ME countries.
|March 27th, 2012||#8|
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The US Forces main problem is in convincing their Congress to allow them to do it with a free hand.
|March 27th, 2012||#9|
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Last edited by hamidreza; March 27th, 2012 at 11:56..
|March 27th, 2012||#10|
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If the US lands no troops on the ground and prosecute their war from afar destroying all vital infrastructure they effectively could turn Iran into a punching bag, with little ability to even endanger US forces.
However I feel that something like you suggest might make their Congress re-assess their thinking, and what is even scarier, is the fact that at the moment, the US is technically bankrupt,... but there is nothing in the world that will stir up an economy, like a nice big war.
The Iranians may do it,... but I think they would find that it would be a very bad move for them in the end. Virtually all of what you have said is true, but the crunch is, there are no "winners" in a war both sides lose in the end. It's just that I feel that in this case the Iranian people would lose far more than anyone else. There would be no 100s of thousands of dead in the USA, their country would not suffer the devastation and disruption of war.
Just think about it,....... The US may never "win", but Iran would certainly lose. It would be a stupid move.
Last edited by senojekips; March 27th, 2012 at 13:37..
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