Another World War?

Ollie Garchy

Ollie Garchy

Active member
"Despite the many positive signs of a lasting rapprochement between Germany and Poland, however, in 1992 Poles remained suspicious of their powerful western neighbor. European economic instability during the late summer brought into question the feasibility of the EC goal of monetary and political union and rekindled fears of German economic domination. Widespread vandalism and violence by xenophobic extremists in Germany also contributed to Polish unease."

Here is the specific question: WILL GERMANY IN THE "NEAR" FUTURE ATTEMPT TO DOMINATE EUROPE MILITARILY or POLITICALLY? (remember: A German-Polish conflict officially started WWII, according to London, Paris, and modern orthodox opinion)

Here is the general question: Will or could Europe ever experience another all-embracing regional conflict like WWI or WWII? How about in response to outside political developments? Who might be the culprit(s)? Who has the necessary power? Why would they?

[I put this question in this forum because modern military capabilities (strategic and operational) as well as political issues play a role. Anyway, war is the continuation of politics].

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-10771.html
 
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In my opinion Europe will not experience another all-embracing regional conflict. Two world wars and extensive contacts have taken away my expectations of this possibility.
There can be groups that glorify the possibility of honor through battle, expanding borders and all that crap, but they'll never get the silent majority needed to prepare for war.
Furthermore, I reckon that Poland has much more to gain via the EU then by a war. All know that the starter of such a conflict will be the pariah of the continent and the looked for prosperity will be further away then ever.

I think that quoting Von Clausewitz in like quoting Malthus when discussing demopgraphy. His theories were right when formulated, but lost it profetic power due to developments he could not forsee. The information age prevents the masses from being mislead in such a way, that they are prepared to go to war and maybe even die.
 
Well, there are 2 parts to this question, a military part and a political part. It can be argued that Germany has already achieved political dominance of Europe, albeit not alone this time. Economic dominance is another factor and in fact, Germany had dominated Europe in this way since the mid 1950s. However, 2 factors, namely the costs of unification of East and West Germany and the loss of the Deutschmark, have somewhat curtailed that dominance in the past 15 years.

There can be no way for Germany to gain military dominance anytime soon, even if the will existed, which it certainly doesn't and hasn't since WW2. There are many reasons for this, the advent of nuclear capability of many nations being a major one but the fact remains that armed conflict to obtain political goals is, in many ways, an outmoded concept. The only major exception to this rule is when one nation has a large enough military, economic and technological advantage over another, as demonstrated by the USA versus Iraq in the last 2 Persian Gulf conflicts.

With the advent of mass media, cultural dominance is now one of the most effective ways for one nation to dominate others. One only has to observe the influence of American culture throughout the last 50 years to see how well the USA has done in importing its culture throughout Europe and the wider world. As I touched upon above economic dominance is another effective way and one which Germany used well in the post-war years.

However, I hate to be a parrot or a prophet of doom but IMO if there is any war in Europe within the next 50 years it will be religious and not political, ignoring political boundaries entirely. In some ways it has already happened, though not within Europe. Many would say that the 2003 invasion of Iraq by US and UK forces was as much a religious war as it was political, with a good bit of economics thrown in there for good measure. But aside from this, it cannot be ignored that Muslim percentages of population in almost all European countries are rising, whilst by the same token Christian percentages are falling. For example, Muslim birth rates are, on average, nearly 3 times higher than Christian birth rates within Western European countries. Birth rates are the lifeblood of a nation or culture, even today. And whilst I don't entirely agree with the following article, much of it is interesting and even alarming.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007760

Anyway to summarize, Germany has no chance at military or cultural dominance IMO. They have achieved a partial political dominance and have largely given up an economic dominance they held for many years. Germany, in the guise of the Third Reich, had a great chance at global domination. That was their last chance alone in the sun.
 
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I do not see another world war in Europe on the same type of conflict as WWII.



What I see happening is a shift in political lines though. Eupore is becomeing like the old world again. Christian Eupore against the southern Muslim part Europe (AKA Turkey). The main reason for this is the current conflicts going on in France with the protesting, the two campaigns in the Middle East, and Iran. Turkey could have a revolution that would make it another Islamic Republic. And it is possible that Iran would fuel this.

The main political threat that I see in the world are as follows.

1) People's Republic of China (In terms of a convential war/nuclear war WWIII type situation.)

2) North Korea (Because they're freaking crazy.)

3) Iran (Developing nuclear weapons and is led by an Islamic Fundamentalist Government. Basicly a nuclear armed terrorist state. Also, Iran has ties with the Current government in Russia and in the PRC.)
 
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no quite, the ww3 will be the USA vs Rest of the world. as we all well aware the fact that they has a budge equal to that the rest of world combined, and they continue to spend it like no tomorrow.
 
Because currently the USA is the main military force that does sh*t.

I don't see any other nation supply NATO, doing UN operations, rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan, and fighting the war on terror.

When other folks start doing that, let me know.

(Allied Nations in Iraq and Afghanistan are pulling their weight.)
 
To be quite honest I can't see another a Major war between the European Countries, as there will be enough problems to sort out in the EU. But conflicts with other Countries well that could be another story.
 
Ollie Garchy said:
"Despite the many positive signs of a lasting rapprochement between Germany and Poland, however, in 1992 Poles remained suspicious of their powerful western neighbor. European economic instability during the late summer brought into question the feasibility of the EC goal of monetary and political union and rekindled fears of German economic domination. Widespread vandalism and violence by xenophobic extremists in Germany also contributed to Polish unease."

Here is the specific question: WILL GERMANY IN THE "NEAR" FUTURE ATTEMPT TO DOMINATE EUROPE MILITARILY or POLITICALLY? (remember: A German-Polish conflict officially started WWII, according to London, Paris, and modern orthodox opinion)

Here is the general question: Will or could Europe ever experience another all-embracing regional conflict like WWI or WWII? How about in response to outside political developments? Who might be the culprit(s)? Who has the necessary power? Why would they?

[I put this question in this forum because modern military capabilities (strategic and operational) as well as political issues play a role. Anyway, war is the continuation of politics].

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-10771.html
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well well, it just so happens that I'm writing a book on that possibility occuring in the near future.

It depends on the scenario. In all honesty, I think the thing that would cause the biggest uproar would be a German rearmament on a large scale. that would scare the hell out of any Europeans. If it did erupt, I'd have to say that it would occur in Silesia, where you will find a good bit of these xenophobic types. The Nazi party also has a strong base there. GIve me some more time to think about it and I'll elaborate.

However, in saying that there will be a largescale conflict such as WWII, no. Nada. Zilch chance. A German push into Poland, maybe at the most.
 
deerslayer said:
well well, it just so happens that I'm writing a book on that possibility occuring in the near future.
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A very interesting but brief comment. Am looking forward to the next post. Writing a book on the subject, eh. Cool!
 
Well, it's fictional, but it involves pro-communist ex-Spetznas operators laundering money to Germany to buy off elected officials there, and then use the incumbent political party's hold in Silesia/that area of Germany to mass Bundeswehr forces towards the Polish border.

Also explains what to do with the world's drug lords.
 
deerslayer said:
Well, it's fictional, but it involves pro-communist ex-Spetznas operators laundering money to Germany to buy off elected officials there, and then use the incumbent political party's hold in Silesia/that area of Germany to mass Bundeswehr forces towards the Polish border.

Also explains what to do with the world's drug lords.
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What's the timeframe? You'll probably know that the Bundeswehr of today is much changed from the army of the Cold War period, with many of the heavy Panzer/Panzergrenadier battalions now disbanded.
 
Right, I've already done some background on the Bundeswehr. They're essentially split into sections with regards to their operational capacity- maritime, land, air, etc. While it's true that Germany has severe limitations currently with regards to an offensive army (beyond CT operations), this novel proposes a back channel by newly elected and corrupt to German and Austrian firms for rearmament. Were it not for this back channel, the novel, and all subplots proceeding with American and Russian involvement, would not exist. So there is the chance that I may possibly be pushing the envelope. Please tell me if I am, so I can iron out the fine points.

By the way, if I recall, that quote in your sig is Guderian to his troops at Stalingrad, right? (a bit of a Stalingrad enthusiast)

however, we're getting off the topic.
 
Response to Doppleganger's post (am in general agreement)

(1) Germany has some sort of political/economic dominance.

I would phrase this hypothesis differently. The German state is involved in the western European partnership. In economic terms, German industry still looms large despite serious setbacks brought by the incorporation of the eastern German corpse. But partnership and not dominance characterizes Germany's role in both regional and international affairs.

(2) Unification and the Euro have downsized German power.

I agree. I would however argue that the European partnership itself has seriously reduced German power. Remember, the European Union evolved from the French-German steel and coal agreements of the late 1940s/ early 1950s. This policy aimed at holding back the reconstruction of German industrial dominance in Europe by artificially controlling German production and productive capacities. In any case, the need to reassure French and Polish public opinion after 1989 led to disastrous economic policies in eastern Germany...like permitting various French companies to buy and then gut eastern German companies.

(3) "There can be no way for Germany to gain military dominance anytime soon".

There is only one possible scenario, in my opinion: Polish and Czech intransigence over every issue involving Germany rips the European partnership to pieces. Freed from the controlling mechanisms of the European Union, like German transfer payments to France, Berlin moves closer to the United States and the United Kingdom. The United States requests a supplicant Germany to rearm and help subsidize the growing costs of empire. Washington and London, in this new environment, accept a form of German military dominance that is however part of a reformed North Atlantic military organization. This scenario requires a) a tougher Germany, b) a USA under pressure and c) Polish and Czech intransigence. The first factor is the only missing ingredient...but it is a whopper.

(4) Cultural factors:

German society generally has no interest in any form of dominance. The average German honestly believes that unilateral declarations of pacifiism will lead to a better world. The argument is simple. If Germany gets rid of the Bundeswehr and all capacities to wage war, the world will follow and we will all live happily ever after. Arrogant and childish in the extreme.

Germans tend to think in idealistic terms with grand visions of the future. Do not forget, communism and nazism (the two plagues of the 20th Century) developed out of German intellectual traditions and more specifically out of Hegelian logic. Both systems offered extremely crude models of human history, development and most importantly a utopian future where once again all of the chosen people live happily ever after. This problem will not go away in the near future. Modern Germans have simply substituted Hitler and Marx with a dove. The mental framework, with all of the problems associated with it, remains. Germany will not go back to the Hitler model, but "peace" is a philosophy that could end with the destruction of western society. Peace can kill. What a paradox.

(5) European Religious Wars.

Jesus, Doppleganger, this subject is frightening. The article that you posted is a good reminder that we are like drunks tottering on the knife's edge.
 
deerslayer said:
By the way, if I recall, that quote in your sig is Guderian to his troops at Stalingrad, right? (a bit of a Stalingrad enthusiast)

however, we're getting off the topic.
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The date gives it away. It's from his final despatch to the 2nd Panzerarmee near Moscow, just before he was dismissed by von Kluge for ignoring Hitler's 'standfast' orders. Stalingrad was a year later and Guderian took no active part in that campaign.
 
Wait, if I recall, wasn't stalingrad from August '41 to Feb. 42? Ah, crap, I'm thinking of one-armed tanker general Hans Hube:sorry:
 
5.56X45mm said:
Turkey could have a revolution that would make it another Islamic Republic. And it is possible that Iran would fuel this.
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Its impossible that Turkey can have a revolution like that...Turkey is a Laic and secular country that there won't be any Islamic Revolutions. Even our army won't let anyone to do this...
 
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