Topic: Another World War?

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April 14th, 2006   Post 1
Ollie Garchy
Centurion
 
 

Post; Another World War?


"Despite the many positive signs of a lasting rapprochement between Germany and Poland, however, in 1992 Poles remained suspicious of their powerful western neighbor. European economic instability during the late summer brought into question the feasibility of the EC goal of monetary and political union and rekindled fears of German economic domination. Widespread vandalism and violence by xenophobic extremists in Germany also contributed to Polish unease."

Here is the specific question: WILL GERMANY IN THE "NEAR" FUTURE ATTEMPT TO DOMINATE EUROPE MILITARILY or POLITICALLY? (remember: A German-Polish conflict officially started WWII, according to London, Paris, and modern orthodox opinion)

Here is the general question: Will or could Europe ever experience another all-embracing regional conflict like WWI or WWII? How about in response to outside political developments? Who might be the culprit(s)? Who has the necessary power? Why would they?

[I put this question in this forum because modern military capabilities (strategic and operational) as well as political issues play a role. Anyway, war is the continuation of politics].

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-10771.html

Last edited by Ollie Garchy; April 14th, 2006 at 06:01.
 
April 14th, 2006   Post 2
Ted
Tribunus Laticlavius
 
 
Gear

In my opinion Europe will not experience another all-embracing regional conflict. Two world wars and extensive contacts have taken away my expectations of this possibility.
There can be groups that glorify the possibility of honor through battle, expanding borders and all that crap, but they'll never get the silent majority needed to prepare for war.
Furthermore, I reckon that Poland has much more to gain via the EU then by a war. All know that the starter of such a conflict will be the pariah of the continent and the looked for prosperity will be further away then ever.

I think that quoting Von Clausewitz in like quoting Malthus when discussing demopgraphy. His theories were right when formulated, but lost it profetic power due to developments he could not forsee. The information age prevents the masses from being mislead in such a way, that they are prepared to go to war and maybe even die.
 
April 14th, 2006   Post 3
Italian Guy
Legatus Legionis
 
 
Gear

Answer is no. This is even less likely than a UK-France conflict.
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April 14th, 2006   Post 4
Doppleganger
Tribuni Angusticlavii
 
 
Well, there are 2 parts to this question, a military part and a political part. It can be argued that Germany has already achieved political dominance of Europe, albeit not alone this time. Economic dominance is another factor and in fact, Germany had dominated Europe in this way since the mid 1950s. However, 2 factors, namely the costs of unification of East and West Germany and the loss of the Deutschmark, have somewhat curtailed that dominance in the past 15 years.

There can be no way for Germany to gain military dominance anytime soon, even if the will existed, which it certainly doesn't and hasn't since WW2. There are many reasons for this, the advent of nuclear capability of many nations being a major one but the fact remains that armed conflict to obtain political goals is, in many ways, an outmoded concept. The only major exception to this rule is when one nation has a large enough military, economic and technological advantage over another, as demonstrated by the USA versus Iraq in the last 2 Persian Gulf conflicts.

With the advent of mass media, cultural dominance is now one of the most effective ways for one nation to dominate others. One only has to observe the influence of American culture throughout the last 50 years to see how well the USA has done in importing its culture throughout Europe and the wider world. As I touched upon above economic dominance is another effective way and one which Germany used well in the post-war years.

However, I hate to be a parrot or a prophet of doom but IMO if there is any war in Europe within the next 50 years it will be religious and not political, ignoring political boundaries entirely. In some ways it has already happened, though not within Europe. Many would say that the 2003 invasion of Iraq by US and UK forces was as much a religious war as it was political, with a good bit of economics thrown in there for good measure. But aside from this, it cannot be ignored that Muslim percentages of population in almost all European countries are rising, whilst by the same token Christian percentages are falling. For example, Muslim birth rates are, on average, nearly 3 times higher than Christian birth rates within Western European countries. Birth rates are the lifeblood of a nation or culture, even today. And whilst I don't entirely agree with the following article, much of it is interesting and even alarming.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110007760

Anyway to summarize, Germany has no chance at military or cultural dominance IMO. They have achieved a partial political dominance and have largely given up an economic dominance they held for many years. Germany, in the guise of the Third Reich, had a great chance at global domination. That was their last chance alone in the sun.
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Last edited by Doppleganger; April 14th, 2006 at 21:03.
 
April 14th, 2006   Post 5
5.56X45mm
100% Space Shuttle Door Gunner
 
 
Gear


I do not see another world war in Europe on the same type of conflict as WWII.



What I see happening is a shift in political lines though. Eupore is becomeing like the old world again. Christian Eupore against the southern Muslim part Europe (AKA Turkey). The main reason for this is the current conflicts going on in France with the protesting, the two campaigns in the Middle East, and Iran. Turkey could have a revolution that would make it another Islamic Republic. And it is possible that Iran would fuel this.

The main political threat that I see in the world are as follows.

1) People's Republic of China (In terms of a convential war/nuclear war WWIII type situation.)

2) North Korea (Because they're freaking crazy.)

3) Iran (Developing nuclear weapons and is led by an Islamic Fundamentalist Government. Basicly a nuclear armed terrorist state. Also, Iran has ties with the Current government in Russia and in the PRC.)
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Last edited by 5.56X45mm; April 17th, 2006 at 23:29.
 
April 15th, 2006   Post 6
achinese
Banned
 
 
no quite, the ww3 will be the USA vs Rest of the world. as we all well aware the fact that they has a budge equal to that the rest of world combined, and they continue to spend it like no tomorrow.
 
April 15th, 2006   Post 7
5.56X45mm
100% Space Shuttle Door Gunner
 
 
Gear


Because currently the USA is the main military force that does sh*t.

I don't see any other nation supply NATO, doing UN operations, rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan, and fighting the war on terror.

When other folks start doing that, let me know.

(Allied Nations in Iraq and Afghanistan are pulling their weight.)
 
April 15th, 2006   Post 8
the_13th_redneck
Fridgeraider (Instructor)
 
 
Gear

I think people who think there will be a massive inter-European war need to go outside a bit more.
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April 17th, 2006   Post 9
LeEnfield
Tribuni Angusticlavii
 
 
Gear

To be quite honest I can't see another a Major war between the European Countries, as there will be enough problems to sort out in the EU. But conflicts with other Countries well that could be another story.
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April 18th, 2006   Post 10
G-Capo
Milites Gregarius
 
 
When hell freezes over.

There's a better chance of Congo attacking Australia.
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