Originally Posted by Ollie Garchy

"Despite the many positive signs of a lasting rapprochement between Germany and Poland, however, in 1992 Poles remained suspicious of their powerful western neighbor. European economic instability during the late summer brought into question the feasibility of the EC goal of monetary and political union and rekindled fears of German economic domination. Widespread vandalism and violence by xenophobic extremists in Germany also contributed to Polish unease."

Here is the specific question: WILL GERMANY IN THE "NEAR" FUTURE ATTEMPT TO DOMINATE EUROPE MILITARILY or POLITICALLY? (remember: A German-Polish conflict officially started WWII, according to London, Paris, and modern orthodox opinion)

Here is the general question: Will or could Europe ever experience another all-embracing regional conflict like WWI or WWII? How about in response to outside political developments? Who might be the culprit(s)? Who has the necessary power? Why would they?

[I put this question in this forum because modern military capabilities (strategic and operational) as well as political issues play a role. Anyway, war is the continuation of politics].

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-10771.html

well well, it just so happens that I'm writing a book on that possibility occuring in the near future.

It depends on the scenario. In all honesty, I think the thing that would cause the biggest uproar would be a German rearmament on a large scale. that would scare the hell out of any Europeans. If it did erupt, I'd have to say that it would occur in Silesia, where you will find a good bit of these xenophobic types. The Nazi party also has a strong base there. GIve me some more time to think about it and I'll elaborate.

However, in saying that there will be a largescale conflict such as WWII, no. Nada. Zilch chance. A German push into Poland, maybe at the most.

Originally Posted by deerslayer

well well, it just so happens that I'm writing a book on that possibility occuring in the near future.

A very interesting but brief comment. Am looking forward to the next post. Writing a book on the subject, eh. Cool!

Well, it's fictional, but it involves pro-communist ex-Spetznas operators laundering money to Germany to buy off elected officials there, and then use the incumbent political party's hold in Silesia/that area of Germany to mass Bundeswehr forces towards the Polish border.

Also explains what to do with the world's drug lords.

Originally Posted by deerslayer

Well, it's fictional, but it involves pro-communist ex-Spetznas operators laundering money to Germany to buy off elected officials there, and then use the incumbent political party's hold in Silesia/that area of Germany to mass Bundeswehr forces towards the Polish border.

Also explains what to do with the world's drug lords.

What's the timeframe? You'll probably know that the Bundeswehr of today is much changed from the army of the Cold War period, with many of the heavy Panzer/Panzergrenadier battalions now disbanded.

Right, I've already done some background on the Bundeswehr. They're essentially split into sections with regards to their operational capacity- maritime, land, air, etc. While it's true that Germany has severe limitations currently with regards to an offensive army (beyond CT operations), this novel proposes a back channel by newly elected and corrupt to German and Austrian firms for rearmament. Were it not for this back channel, the novel, and all subplots proceeding with American and Russian involvement, would not exist. So there is the chance that I may possibly be pushing the envelope. Please tell me if I am, so I can iron out the fine points.

By the way, if I recall, that quote in your sig is Guderian to his troops at Stalingrad, right? (a bit of a Stalingrad enthusiast)

however, we're getting off the topic.

Response to Doppleganger's post (am in general agreement)

(1) Germany has some sort of political/economic dominance.

I would phrase this hypothesis differently. The German state is involved in the western European partnership. In economic terms, German industry still looms large despite serious setbacks brought by the incorporation of the eastern German corpse. But partnership and not dominance characterizes Germany's role in both regional and international affairs.

(2) Unification and the Euro have downsized German power.

I agree. I would however argue that the European partnership itself has seriously reduced German power. Remember, the European Union evolved from the French-German steel and coal agreements of the late 1940s/ early 1950s. This policy aimed at holding back the reconstruction of German industrial dominance in Europe by artificially controlling German production and productive capacities. In any case, the need to reassure French and Polish public opinion after 1989 led to disastrous economic policies in eastern Germany...like permitting various French companies to buy and then gut eastern German companies.

(3) "There can be no way for Germany to gain military dominance anytime soon".

There is only one possible scenario, in my opinion: Polish and Czech intransigence over every issue involving Germany rips the European partnership to pieces. Freed from the controlling mechanisms of the European Union, like German transfer payments to France, Berlin moves closer to the United States and the United Kingdom. The United States requests a supplicant Germany to rearm and help subsidize the growing costs of empire. Washington and London, in this new environment, accept a form of German military dominance that is however part of a reformed North Atlantic military organization. This scenario requires a) a tougher Germany, b) a USA under pressure and c) Polish and Czech intransigence. The first factor is the only missing ingredient...but it is a whopper.

(4) Cultural factors:

German society generally has no interest in any form of dominance. The average German honestly believes that unilateral declarations of pacifiism will lead to a better world. The argument is simple. If Germany gets rid of the Bundeswehr and all capacities to wage war, the world will follow and we will all live happily ever after. Arrogant and childish in the extreme.

Germans tend to think in idealistic terms with grand visions of the future. Do not forget, communism and nazism (the two plagues of the 20th Century) developed out of German intellectual traditions and more specifically out of Hegelian logic. Both systems offered extremely crude models of human history, development and most importantly a utopian future where once again all of the chosen people live happily ever after. This problem will not go away in the near future. Modern Germans have simply substituted Hitler and Marx with a dove. The mental framework, with all of the problems associated with it, remains. Germany will not go back to the Hitler model, but "peace" is a philosophy that could end with the destruction of western society. Peace can kill. What a paradox.

(5) European Religious Wars.

Jesus, Doppleganger, this subject is frightening. The article that you posted is a good reminder that we are like drunks tottering on the knife's edge.

Originally Posted by deerslayer

By the way, if I recall, that quote in your sig is Guderian to his troops at Stalingrad, right? (a bit of a Stalingrad enthusiast)

however, we're getting off the topic.

The date gives it away. It's from his final despatch to the 2nd Panzerarmee near Moscow, just before he was dismissed by von Kluge for ignoring Hitler's 'standfast' orders. Stalingrad was a year later and Guderian took no active part in that campaign.

Wait, if I recall, wasn't stalingrad from August '41 to Feb. 42? Ah, crap, I'm thinking of one-armed tanker general Hans Hube

Originally Posted by 5.56X45mm

Turkey could have a revolution that would make it another Islamic Republic. And it is possible that Iran would fuel this.

Its impossible that Turkey can have a revolution like that...Turkey is a Laic and secular country that there won't be any Islamic Revolutions. Even our army won't let anyone to do this...

been two world wars in the last hundred year so more then likely to be another one. history tends to repeat itself.