There is one thing you have missed, which is the effect of the possible muslimification of Western Europe. This could have a fundamental effect on the policies of one of the most influential and richest areas of the planet.
http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1056046/posts
The above link is interesting and alarmist, but I'm not sure whether things will exactly come to pass as it postulates. I would like to state that the above link does not reflect my own opinion, but it's quite revealing nonetheless.