I was under the impression that Japan and Russia were strenghthening their relations. There's the dispute over certain islands, but considering that we'd have to convincingly prove that Japan as being EXTREMELY neutral, I doubt that they'd fail to take sides. Both Japan and the Phillipines have more to fear from a victorious China than from India or Russia. Their strongest compelling reasons for those two nations are fear of China becoming stronger, not any particular love for India. The same would be the case with Russia -- its not the 1960's and we don't have the concept of a global Communist brotherhood factoring into things. We do have the very strong levels of Russian mistrust of China.
Without Russia, India would be in trouble. I think Russia would side with India for the sake of balancing the equation, since Pakistan is pretty well guaranteed to side with China.
Bangladesh is actually a tough call because the moment they take Pakistan's side, they're wide open to India invading them and to my understanding, they don't have that strong of a military with which to defend themselves -- so it wouldn't take much military diverted away from fighting China to beat the crap out of Bangladesh. They'd probably do it anyway though. Muslim pride or whatnot.
I'm very curious if anyone can figure who Thailand and Myanmar would side with? Also, compelling reasons for Indonesia and Malasya to side with anyone?
The interesting thing about this scenario is not because the scenario is likely. War between India and China ISN'T very likely to happen. It's interesting because it provides an opportunity to discuss the political climate in East Asia. Its the only scenario that allows us to see how things play out without having to consider the indimidation factor of the populations of either China or India. Both sides have one 1 billion+ nation on their side so neither side can say "We overwhelm them with numbers." Obviously, China has the stronger standing army, but both can draft enormous armies into existence. I'm saying that, for reasons unknown, Europe and the USA are staying out if it simply because they are too great of a tiebreaker. Europe and the USA would probably go united to one side or the other, and whoever they pick wins ... so we're leaving them out of it.
"It is well that war is so terrible, else we should grow too fond of it."
- General Robert E. Lee
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"It takes a big man to admit when he's wrong. I am NOT a big man." -Chevy Chase