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The problem is that there is nothing to say that the Soviet Union would have surrendered had Moscow fallen, there appears to be two schools of thought on this issue:
1) Stalin vowed to stay in Moscow and fight to the end, had this happened then I think there is a good chance they would have sued for peace without Stalin at the head.
2) Stalin leaves Moscow and the Russians launch their winter offensive against an over stretched and exhausted Army Group Centre in much the same way they did against the German 6th Army at Stalingrad an enveloping pincer movement, given the size of the salient it is entirely possible they would suffer the same fate as the 6th Army.
I think it is fair to say that Moscow is probably the lynch pin of the Russian transport system in the region so it may have been difficult for the Red Army to get into position for such an attack however the Red Army was well known for its ability to improvise (as evidenced in books by Antony Beevor and Erhard Raus who should know as he was there).
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I think Moscow’s conquest wouldn’t have been a problem for Germany. At that time (31 Oct.) only 90000 soldiers and 150 Tanks were ready to defend Moscow. And the other cities weren’t in better condition such as Leningrad and Kiev.
Moscow would have defeated or their people would have died by German surrounding if Siberian troops hadn’t come on time. 11 Army consist of 30 Siberian Division who were completely familiar with cold weather.
And why they come? Because they were assured of the East side. Siberian troops were formed to deal against Japan possible attack. At that time there was an agreement between Japan and Germany that Japan wasn’t obligate to attack to Siberia. This report was sent to Moscow by a spy (Richard Svrzh) at that time and I think because of that the war fate changed.
And I want to say another thing. Moscow is different with Leningrad or Kiev. Moscow’s fall as the capital of SU could have had bad effect on Russia people spirit.