Originally Posted by samneanderthal
France had a mutual defense agreement with Poland in 1939 and it didn't help Poland much (or France). Moreover, nothing indicates that the American public would go to war with China over Taiwan. They would be far more concerned if football players went on strike, than if China recovered part of its territory (it is more like the Sudetenland than like Poland)
Taiwan cannot hope to defend itself from tens of thousands of Chinese long range missiles, the Chinese air force, paratroopers and ships equipped with radar guided, very rapid fire cannon that can shoot down SS missiles. The Taiwanese know it and will have to yield eventually.
The Monroe doctrine didn't prevent Russia from owning Alaska, France from invading Mexico or Spain from owning Cuba (until the beginning of the 20th century). It is just as easy to make agreements and policies as it is to ignore them when real danger threatens.
And the costs for China if they are doing something like that? Taiwan has a strong air force; their air defense is really good. The Chinese air force must neutralize their air force and air defense. They must even reduce the ground forces prior an invasion. Modern naval ships are lesser capable to prepare an invasion beach before a landing of amphibious forces, so the job goes to the fly boys. Then how willing are the service men in China to do something like this? The Taiwanese will defend their homes.
What will be the gain for China to take the economic losses, the human losses to commence an operation like this?
The rhetoric about China reminds a lot how the West sounded about the Soviet Union, especially when the Russians' come up with something new. OMG!!! We are doomed