There is one caveat that is missing
: Bush won reelection with a 43% approval rating in 2004.
Polls this early are simply not be trusted as the GOP has not selected a nominee, and in my view precisely who will be the GOP nominee will determine the 2012 election.
If the GOP is smart, they will nominate someone palatable to moderates like myself such as a Romney or Huntsman. Should they be the nominee, Obama will be in very serious trouble.
If however, the nominee is Perry or Bachmann that will scare off the moderates. The more I see Perry the more he reminds me of Bush. And there is no way I'm going back to that, hell no!
Last night Perry reiterated his desire to kill off Social Security. That might have played well to the base, but anyone planning on retiring soon just because a Democrat. Perry simply cannot win the general election with those types of Ideological "mad cowboy disease" extremist views.
We know that type already, that wont work a second time. People don't like Obama, but that doesn't mean we want Bush back. I hope the GOP loses in a landslide if they nominate Perry.
Furthermore. the left isn't yet involved in the election cycle, they wont be until the GOP primaries are decided. Wait until Obama starts to rally the base...
Real Clear politics (which covers all the polls) Obama winning by a hair against Perry http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-2701.html
I think the GOP establishment knows this, and are going to try and undermine Perry. Already Karl Rove called Perry views "Toxic". That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
UPDATE: I was just listening to Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter on the "O'Really? Factor" in while the main topic was Palin they did pump up Romney at several points. They also took a few shots at Perry, so I think my assumption is still correct, the GOP establishment mouthpiece (FOX NEWS) is behind Romney and not Perry.