June 23rd, 2009
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| Tribuni Angusticlavii
| Back to topic ":Fraud Or Sour Grapes?".
Today read an article citing a Chatham House Preliminary Analysis of the votes cast (based on the published Iranian Gobrenment data) in El Mundo, Spain.
Their findings makes it more than improbable that Ahmadinejad won the elections in a correct way:
Here a quick summary of their findings:
- In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of
more than 100% was recorded
- At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased
turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion
that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously
silent Conservative majority.
The most significant hint to what happened is in the numbers of changed votes:
- In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that
Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all
former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former
Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two
groups.
- In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and
Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.
That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim
that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces
flies in the face of these trends.
The whole original paper is here: http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache...ient=firefox-a
Excerpts:
Quote: According to the official Ministry of Interior voting data (see Appendix),
Mahmud Ahmadinejad has increased the conservative vote by 113%
compared to the 2005 election. There is little correlation in provincial level
results between the increase in turnout and the swing to the President,
challenging the notion that a previously silent Conservative majority has come
out to support him. Interestingly, in 10 out of 30 provinces, mainly former
Mehdi Karrubi strongholds, the official data suggests that Ahmadinejad
received not only the votes of all former non-voters and former Rafsanjani
voters, but also took up to 44% of the vote from those who had previously
voted Reformist.
According to the official data, Mahmud Ahmadinejad has received
approximately 13m more votes in this election than the combined conservative
vote in the 2005 Presidential election.
Assuming that Ahmadinejad retained all 11.5m Conservative votes from 2005,
these additional 13m votes could have come from three sources, in
descending order of likelihood:
• The approximately 10.6m citizens who did not vote in 2005, but chose
to vote in this election
• The 6.2m citizens who voted for the centrist Rafsanjani in 2005
• The 10.4m citizens who voted for Reformist candidates in 2005
| Ouch.
What the scientists cannot say directly (as they are working probabilities), I as non-scientist can make my educated opinion on straightforwardly: FRAUD.
Rattler
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