Valid, for all the reasons stated, plus 1 - lack of suitable launch areas for the 262.
I checked up on my limited reources & then wikipedia, they seem to agree that (lifted straight from Wikipedia):
The 003 engines, which were proving unreliable, were replaced by the newly available
Junkers Jumo 004. Test flights continued over the next year, but the engines continued to be unreliable. Airframe modifications were complete by 1942, but hampered by the lack of engines, serial production did not begin until 1944. This delay in engine availability was in part due to the shortage of strategic materials, especially metals and alloys able to handle the extreme temperatures produced by the jet engine. Even when the engines were completed, they had an expected operational lifetime of approximately 50 hours; in fact, most 004s lasted just 12 hours.
Whilst not disputing the numbersof 262 produced, not their effect, tactics were quickly developed to counter the 262.
I come back to my original point, had production started earlier, with the consequent strain on engines and thus skilled manpower, materiel and other logisitic support what would have given way? The German war machine was at full throttle, the Allied air forces concentrating on defeating the German industrial capability. Yes the air war would've been in the balance, but then the ground war might have seen some other gains.