I think the first three steps are rather reasonable but I think the last one is just pure fantasy.
1) A united Korea won't allow US to put troops there anymore.
My view: It really depends on how relations are with China... and eventually Japan. A united Korea may decide to hold the "neutral" card in the struggle between the two. Both China and Japan will want to wield as much influence over Korea as possible because in case of conflict, the addition of Korea could give either side the edge. Korea will want to have a strong enough military to guarantee its neutrality in this region. This may require the complete withdrawl of American forces. But it will include the neccessity of Nuke ownership.
2) Soon, Japan will request US withdraw the troops.
My view: Once Japan's allowed to have its own full fledged military, I don't see why this request won't be made. Unless of course, Japan realizes that China is a big enough threat to warrant American alliance. Then the US will probably stay in Japan.
3) And war-race will start among China, Korea and Japan
My view: It's already pretty much begun. Japan's got the foundations of a brilliant military, China's doing a fine job of modernizing its massive army and South Korea is constantly improving its military. Korea will also know it has a tradition of winning wars one way or another throughout the years. It only lost completely in war (i.e. taken over by conquerers) twice. Once by the Mongols and once by the Japanese. They will look to continue this tradition.
4) When fully armed Japan reborn, its first target it return the nukes back to US.
My View: That's just stupid.
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Originally Posted by whosewar2000 There are will be a chain reaction:
A unite Korea won't allow US to put troops there anymore.
Soon, Japan will request US withdraw the troops.
And war-race will start among China, Korea and Japan
When fully armed Japan reborn, its first target it return the nukes back to US.
..........
So, I donot see US have a reason to allow Korea to reunite.
The current situation is best for all. |