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Originally Posted by Doppleganger Well as I said before lack of manpower was not the reason why the Germans failed on a strategic level. Better candidates to blame would be the divided objectives, the complete underestimation of both the individual qualities of the Russian soldier and the size of their strategic reserve, and the shaky logistical infrastructure that was barely adequate to support an operation the size of Barbarossa. |
Lets say - lack of manpower was one of reasons why Germans failed to fulfill objectives, however lack of manpower was result of bad planning, i.e. underestimation of enemy.
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Originally Posted by Doppleganger The Red Army was too weak to assault in more than one place at a time in 1941. If general panic ensued in Moscow, as it did in particular on October 18th, the city could have been secured in 24 hours. There doesn't have to be a 'Stalingrad' cauldron if the Germans strike the city at the right time; i.e. as quickly as possible and before the Red Army has time to reorganize and lay down 1st and 2nd echelon defences. Stalingrad itself could have been taken almost without a fight in July 1942 had Hitler not dithered and diverted 4th Panzerarmee elsewhere. In any case AGN and AGS would be on the defensive when AGC assaulted Moscow and local successes aside I do not see the Red Army of 1941 being able to inflict any serious reverses on the dug-in AGN and AGS. |
Well, couple of things:
- Red Army was not as weak as there was lack of adequate plan (`what to do, where to run?` ©) and poor coordination between large units like armies and fronts. Moreover, Germans had initiative and in fact Red Army was forced just to react on Germans moves, not to carry out its own strategy.
- In case of an asap offensive on Moscow danger from right flank (on left flank Red Army had no forces enough, indeed) still would be there despite of dug in AGS. Since due to enclosing to Moscow the front line AGS should defend would stretch in hundreds of kilometers or even more. So, there already are two factors, decreasing AGS defensive capacities: a) long front line (which means there would not be very high density of German forces); b) short of time to prepare multi-level, echeloned defense (Red Army's defense lines in the half-circle of Kursk were prepared about three or four months, and Germans still managed amost to break them up in certain places).
- There is no chance to sit in trenches and fox-holes and defeat ALL attacks. The attacking side sooner or later will concentrate force enough to break up the defense. And again, due to flaws in planning, Germans also weren't able to attack EVERYWHERE, so in case of main assault on Moscow AGS most likely wouldn't be able to counterrattack Soviet South armies.
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Originally Posted by Doppleganger here was an element of defending their homes and lands and of course the Nazis did not endear themselves to the local population in any way but remove Stalin from the equation and IMO you'd find that general civilian resistance would be fatally weakened. |
Of course. Stalin played role of government and if government falls or flees, the resistance can only weaken. Due to both psychologic and lack of united management reasons.
However I can agree that Stalin himself was more decisive factor than any other governor could be.
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Originally Posted by Doppleganger No, I was referring to the Kiev operation. |
There also should be considered that Kiev was much closer to border than Moscow. Therefore:
- Assault on Kiev could be launched faster what also means less time for defending side to organize defense and refit its forces with new units;
- Germans could attack Kiev with greater number of forces, and status of those forces was higher as it could be in case of assault on Moscow. Kiev was half as far from border as Moscow was, and when Germans could reach Moscow, the number and status of their forces will significantly decrease due to casualties (still no reinforcements) and attrition...
So I do not have any background to think that Moscow could be taken as easy as Kiev was.