| I think events on the Eastern Front in 1943, plus the political pressure Stalin was putting on the Western Allies, more or less guaranteed a D-Day in 1944 at some point. If we can hypothesize that the Luftwaffe was able to maintain a least some parity in tactical air support and fighter cover then the task of the Western Allies would have been much more difficult. If D-Day had never gone ahead then possibly the July bomb plot wouldn't have happened either. With only one front to fight on and Hitler still allowing some military judgement to prevail the Germans could have eventually stalled the Soviet advance. Historically the Red Army was beginning to run short of manpower in 1945 and the Germans had ever shortening supply lines and defensive fronts that would have made things easier for them. Of course, they'd need to hold on to the Ploesti oilfields in Romania to have any chance.
The Germans really seemed to make things hard for themselves. They had the best tactical and operational organisation in the world but their upper command structure was a mess of bureaucracy, secrecy and mistrust. Too many chiefs basically and Hitler making all the decisions.
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"An Emperor is subject to no-one but God and justice."
Frederick 1, Barbarossa
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