| Just some random points.
The Allies had already landed in this hypothetical scenario. Perhaps the Germans are following Guderian's advice to allow the Allied Armies to advance inland before counter-attacking. This would hopefully replicate for them the huge encirclements achieved in Russia.
The Luftwaffe is quite a bit stronger than historically. The Luftwaffe has very little strategic bombing capability to speak of, but it probably has, man for man, the best CAS and Air Superiority capability in the world. It certainly has the most seasoned pilots.
It has been argued that strategic bombing is only truly effective on an already defeated opponent. In this scenario that is far from the case.
The Allies may run out of logistics, albeit temporarily, as they did historically.
If the weather dictates that Allied Air strikes are ruled out, a few days may be all that's needed for the Wehrmacht to achieve a decisive result. The forces available to Germany at Stalingrad and Kursk will probably be available to them here. That means 6th Army, 17 Army, 1st Panzerarmee, 4th Panzerarmee. There is no comparison between these forces and the forces available historically to the Germans.
If the Wehrmacht can deny the Allies the major ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam the Allied Armies will have their major supply depots denied to them.
If entire US Armies are cut off in the field and destroyed, will that affect US public opinion at home to 'bring the boys home'?
Likewise, if UK Armies are similarly destroyed, will Churchill be overthrown and say someone like Lord Halifax appointed who would secure a separate peace with Hitler?
If the Wehrmacht is gradually pushed back to Berlin and eventually loses, the casualties for the Western Armies will probably be much higher than historically.
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"An Emperor is subject to no-one but God and justice."
Frederick 1, Barbarossa
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